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October dispatches remain muted on higher base…
Cement majors report aggregate dispatch growth of 0.4% YoY, ~17% MoM
In October 2011, the dispatches of major cement players remained dull
and they reported an aggregate dispatch growth of 0.4% YoY. Jaypee
outperformed other players with ~13% YoY growth in dispatches. ACC
and Ambuja reported growth of 2.6% YoY and 1.7% YoY, respectively,
while UltraTech reported a 6.8% YoY decline in dispatches. Mangalam
Cement reported 5.6% YoY growth. Shree Cement, JK Lakshmi and
Heidelberg reported flat growth in dispatches.
On an MoM basis, the aggregate dispatch growth was robust with ~17%
as the demand picked up after the end of the monsoon season. Jaypee,
Shree and Mangalam reported ~22%, ~37% and ~31% growth in
dispatches, respectively. UltraTech, ACC and Ambuja Cement reported
~13-15% MoM growth in dispatches.
In September 2011, overall industry dispatches grew 2.5% YoY while they
declined ~5% on an MoM basis as offtakes were impacted by a
slowdown in construction activities due to the monsoon season.
All-India average cement price picks up by | 10/bag MoM in October
All-India average cement prices have increased by ~| 5-15/bag in October
2011 across all regions and stood at ~| 248/bag. This major hike was
seen in the eastern region where prices increased by ~| 15/bag. In the
north and central region, prices have increased by ~| 10/bag MoM while
prices have increased by ~5/bag in the southern and western regions. We
expect cement prices to recover further in October 2011 on account of a
pick-up in dispatches.
Industry outlook
[
All-India cement demand is expected to grow by 4.5% in FY12E against
4.4% in FY11 as the consumption has been subdued during the year and
grew by 3.9% YoY in April-September 2011. For October-March 2011, we
expect demand to grow by 5.1% YoY as it is expected to pick up post
monsoon. However, the slowdown in construction activities would remain
a key concern. The utilisation rate is expected to decline further to 75% in
FY12E and would remain at the same level in FY13E on account of high
additions in effective capacity as against incremental demand. For FY13E,
we expect the utilisation rate to remain at ~75%. However, it is expected
to start improving from FY14E onwards as incremental demand is likely to
keep pace with the additions in effective capacities
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
October dispatches remain muted on higher base…
Cement majors report aggregate dispatch growth of 0.4% YoY, ~17% MoM
In October 2011, the dispatches of major cement players remained dull
and they reported an aggregate dispatch growth of 0.4% YoY. Jaypee
outperformed other players with ~13% YoY growth in dispatches. ACC
and Ambuja reported growth of 2.6% YoY and 1.7% YoY, respectively,
while UltraTech reported a 6.8% YoY decline in dispatches. Mangalam
Cement reported 5.6% YoY growth. Shree Cement, JK Lakshmi and
Heidelberg reported flat growth in dispatches.
On an MoM basis, the aggregate dispatch growth was robust with ~17%
as the demand picked up after the end of the monsoon season. Jaypee,
Shree and Mangalam reported ~22%, ~37% and ~31% growth in
dispatches, respectively. UltraTech, ACC and Ambuja Cement reported
~13-15% MoM growth in dispatches.
In September 2011, overall industry dispatches grew 2.5% YoY while they
declined ~5% on an MoM basis as offtakes were impacted by a
slowdown in construction activities due to the monsoon season.
All-India average cement price picks up by | 10/bag MoM in October
All-India average cement prices have increased by ~| 5-15/bag in October
2011 across all regions and stood at ~| 248/bag. This major hike was
seen in the eastern region where prices increased by ~| 15/bag. In the
north and central region, prices have increased by ~| 10/bag MoM while
prices have increased by ~5/bag in the southern and western regions. We
expect cement prices to recover further in October 2011 on account of a
pick-up in dispatches.
Industry outlook
[
All-India cement demand is expected to grow by 4.5% in FY12E against
4.4% in FY11 as the consumption has been subdued during the year and
grew by 3.9% YoY in April-September 2011. For October-March 2011, we
expect demand to grow by 5.1% YoY as it is expected to pick up post
monsoon. However, the slowdown in construction activities would remain
a key concern. The utilisation rate is expected to decline further to 75% in
FY12E and would remain at the same level in FY13E on account of high
additions in effective capacity as against incremental demand. For FY13E,
we expect the utilisation rate to remain at ~75%. However, it is expected
to start improving from FY14E onwards as incremental demand is likely to
keep pace with the additions in effective capacities
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