14 November 2011

Buying on days market is down would be best: Deepak Mohoni :Economic Times,

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


The continuing global sell-off took its toll on our market as well, with the Sensex finishing 2.11% or 369.79 points lower last week. The Nifty ended 2.18% down and the CNX Midcap Index lost 2.67%.

Hindustan Unilever was the biggest winner among the index stocks with a 4.6% gain. The other index stocks to go up include TCS, Wipro, Hero Motocorp and ITC with gains between 2.9% and 1.2%.

State Bank of India was the biggest loser among the index stocks with an 8.5% loss. The other index stocks to go down include Tata Steel, DLF, Hindalco and ICICI Bank with losses between 8.1% and 7.1%.

Flexituff International was the biggest winner among the more heavily-traded, non-index stocks with a 32.2% gain. The other nonindex stocks to go up include Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Jain Irrigation, Jet Airways, Ultratech Cement, Prakash Constrowell, Satyam Computers and Cairn India with gains between 7.3% and 2.4%.

M and B Switchgears was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with an 18.8% loss. The other nonindex stocks to go down include Gravita India, BPCL, HDIL, Tata Motors DVR, Voltas, Educomp Solutions and Shree Renuka Sugars with losses between 16.1% and 9.0%.

INTERMEDIATE TREND

The Sensex, Nifty and the CNX Midcap entered intermediate downtrends last week, falling below their downtrend trigger levels on Friday. A new intermediate uptrend would be established if the Sensex were to rise above 17,725, the Nifty 5,350 and the CNX Midcap Index 7,375 (Figures rounded up to the nearest 25).

The intermediate downtrend has been on from October 28 when the Sensex peaked at 17,908, and the Nifty at 5,400. The CNX Midcap index topped out at 7,353 on Wednesday, last week. Most global markets are in intermediate downtrends, with Shanghai and Brazil still holding out in uptrends.

LONG-TERM TREND

The Sensex and the Nifty have risen past their previous intermediate tops during the current intermediate uptrend, triggering the so-called 'Dow Signal' for a bull market. The Dow itself and a few other global markets also did this.

Further confirmation of a bull market would follow if these indices settle above their 200-day moving averages. The Sensex's average is just above 17,950 and the Nifty's at 5,390. The Dow has been fluctuating around its 200-day average for the last three weeks.

TRADING STRATEGIES

Additional investing for the long term can be resumed, now that an intermediate downtrend has been established, and known to have been in existence for two weeks. Buying on days the market is down would be best, and purchases should be staggered as much as possible to reduce risk.

Investing in gold and other commodities remains risky, as there is a strong possibility that the longer-term trend in most commodities is down despite some strong rallies. Most commodities remain well below the peaks they reached earlier in the year.

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Most global markets are in intermediate downtrends, with Shanghai and Brazil as the notable exceptions. The Dow would be back in an uptrend if it climbs past 12,200.

The Dow has signalled a bull market for itself by going past its last intermediate top as well as its 200-day moving average. Several European indices and Brazil's BOVESPA also followed suit, as also the Sensex and the Nifty. However, the Dow is the only major index to have crossed its 200-day moving average.

The Sensex had lost 15.7% in the 12 months that ended on Thursday, keeping it at the 24th place among 35 well-known global indices considered for the study. The Dow and the NASDAQ Composite are among the top global performers. Indonesia is close behind them.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 5.4% and the NASDAQ Composite gained 2.7% over the same period. (These rankings do not take exchange rate effects into consideration).

No comments:

Post a Comment