10 November 2011

Buy Dabur; Target : Rs 120 ::ICICI Securities

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I n t e r n a t i o n a l   b u s i n e s s   d r i v e s   t o p l i n e   g r o w t h …
Dabur India’s Q2FY12 results were  in line with our estimates on the
revenue front with the company reporting a topline growth of 29.8% YoY
to | 1262.3 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1247.7 crore). The robust growth in
revenues has been led by the contribution to sales from the company’s
overseas acquisitions (Hobi and Namasté), excluding which the sales
growth stood at 12.9%. EBITDA margins continued to remain under
pressure YoY, declining by ~220 bps to 18.7%. However, margins
improved significantly QoQ by 390 bps driven by the impact of price
hikes across the company’s portfolio. In spite of a dip in margins, higher
sales and lower tax helped the company to maintain its YoY PAT growth
at a moderate level of 8.4% to | 173.9 crore against | 160.4 crore.
ƒ Highlight of the quarter
During the quarter, Dabur India Ltd (DIL) re-aligned its distribution
structure by integrating the consumer care division and the consumer
health division into a single unit, consumer care business (CCB). The
company did this restructuring to capture greater synergy, leverage scale
and enhance capabilities. Hence, DIL  now operates under two business
divisions, domestic and international. The domestic business is
completely merged under one unit, consumer care, while the
international business is organised under Dabur International, Hobi Group
and Namasté Labs LLC.
V a l u a t i o n
Currently, the stock is trading at 25.5x and 20.7x its FY12E and FY13E EPS
of | 3.9 and | 4.7, respectively. With growth in the international business
remaining healthy and DIL’s leadership position in its key product
offerings, honey, chyawanprash and fruit juices, remaining intact we
expect the momentum in sales growth to continue. Moreover, with
judicious price hikes and better operational management we expect
growth in margins and earnings to be back on track, going ahead. Hence,
we have valued the stock at 25x its FY13E EPS of | 4.8, arriving at a target
price of | 120

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