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The tug of war continues…
Sensex (16454) / Nifty (4943)
Referring to our previous report, we had mentioned that while
the view is clearly negative considering the Weekly charts, the
daily candle suggests the probability of a temporary pullback
rally towards 16490 - 16620 / 4960 - 5000. Also, we stated
that the market may test the initial support level of 4720 before
giving the bounce. During the initial part of the last week,
markets drifted towards 15800 / 4750 and the expected bounce
was seen during the derivative expiry. Indices registered a high
of 16756 / 5034. The Sensex ended with a nominal loss of
1.46%, whereas the Nifty lost 1.44% vis-à-vis the previous week.
Pattern Formation
The "20 EMA" on the Daily chart is placed at 16670 / 5010
level.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 17191 to
15801 / 5169 to 4758 is at 16660 / 5011 level.
Future Outlook
Broadly speaking, indices are stuck in a trading range of 15756
to 17250 / 4720 to 5200. On the Daily chart, we are now
observing that "20 EMA" and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
of the fall from 17191 to 15801 / 5169 to 4758 indicate a
similar resistance level. This level is at 16670 / 5010. Going
forward, selling pressure is likely to intensify on the violation of
Thursday's low of 16316 / 4906. Subsequently, indices are likely
to drift towards 16000 - 15765 / 4800 - 4720 levels. A breach
of the crucial support level at 15765 /4720 would lead to a
further fall towards 15650 - 15330 / 4675 - 4540 levels. On
the upside, 16756 - 17000 / 5034 - 5110 levels are likely to
act as a resistance in coming week.
Nifty May Correct but 4800 is very strong support.
Nifty spot closed at 4943.25 this week, against a close of 4867.75 last week. The Put-Call Ratio increased from 1.27 to 1.40 levels
and the annualized Cost of Carry is negative 2.64%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 30.53%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR - OI has significantly increased from 1.27 levels to 1.40
levels and reason for the same is increase in open interest of
put options especially in strikes ranging from 4400-4700 put
options and simultaneously very less open interest was build
up in strikes ranging from 5000-5200 call options. Volatility is
still high so we believe put built-up is more of buying. Market
may come down but may find it difficult to surpass strong support
of 4800.
Historical volatility (HV) has being constant and has inched up
from 29.22% to 29.57%. It made a high of around 32% in last
week. HV for BANKNIFTY is trading at 36.98%. Liquid counters
having very high historical volatility are MOSERBAER,
RELCAPITAL, IVRCLINFRA, KFA and JPASSOCIAT. Stocks where
HV's are on lower side are BRFL, ASIANPAINT, BOSCHLTD,
GLAXO and BAJAJHLDG.
Nifty futures closed at a discount of 8.95 points against the
premium of 2.95 points to its spot. Next month future is trading
with premium of 5.15 points. Counters where CoC is high are
TULIP, DCHL, JSWENERGY, GTOFFSHORE and IGL. Stocks with
negative CoC are MOSERBAER, ABAN, DLF, BHUSANSTL and
ASHOKLEY.
Total open interest of market has decreased from `1,42,621/-
crores to `95,373.48/- crores. Stock futures open interest has
decreased from `30,730/- crores to `25,065/- crores. Liquid
counters which added considerable open interest are
RELCAPITAL, COALINDIA, RELINFRA, HINDZINC and CAIRN.
Open interest was shed in big names like HEROMOTOCO,
ITC, GRASIM, JPASSOCIAT and BHEL.
Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
The tug of war continues…
Sensex (16454) / Nifty (4943)
Referring to our previous report, we had mentioned that while
the view is clearly negative considering the Weekly charts, the
daily candle suggests the probability of a temporary pullback
rally towards 16490 - 16620 / 4960 - 5000. Also, we stated
that the market may test the initial support level of 4720 before
giving the bounce. During the initial part of the last week,
markets drifted towards 15800 / 4750 and the expected bounce
was seen during the derivative expiry. Indices registered a high
of 16756 / 5034. The Sensex ended with a nominal loss of
1.46%, whereas the Nifty lost 1.44% vis-à-vis the previous week.
Pattern Formation
The "20 EMA" on the Daily chart is placed at 16670 / 5010
level.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 17191 to
15801 / 5169 to 4758 is at 16660 / 5011 level.
Future Outlook
Broadly speaking, indices are stuck in a trading range of 15756
to 17250 / 4720 to 5200. On the Daily chart, we are now
observing that "20 EMA" and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
of the fall from 17191 to 15801 / 5169 to 4758 indicate a
similar resistance level. This level is at 16670 / 5010. Going
forward, selling pressure is likely to intensify on the violation of
Thursday's low of 16316 / 4906. Subsequently, indices are likely
to drift towards 16000 - 15765 / 4800 - 4720 levels. A breach
of the crucial support level at 15765 /4720 would lead to a
further fall towards 15650 - 15330 / 4675 - 4540 levels. On
the upside, 16756 - 17000 / 5034 - 5110 levels are likely to
act as a resistance in coming week.
Nifty May Correct but 4800 is very strong support.
Nifty spot closed at 4943.25 this week, against a close of 4867.75 last week. The Put-Call Ratio increased from 1.27 to 1.40 levels
and the annualized Cost of Carry is negative 2.64%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 30.53%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR - OI has significantly increased from 1.27 levels to 1.40
levels and reason for the same is increase in open interest of
put options especially in strikes ranging from 4400-4700 put
options and simultaneously very less open interest was build
up in strikes ranging from 5000-5200 call options. Volatility is
still high so we believe put built-up is more of buying. Market
may come down but may find it difficult to surpass strong support
of 4800.
Historical volatility (HV) has being constant and has inched up
from 29.22% to 29.57%. It made a high of around 32% in last
week. HV for BANKNIFTY is trading at 36.98%. Liquid counters
having very high historical volatility are MOSERBAER,
RELCAPITAL, IVRCLINFRA, KFA and JPASSOCIAT. Stocks where
HV's are on lower side are BRFL, ASIANPAINT, BOSCHLTD,
GLAXO and BAJAJHLDG.
Nifty futures closed at a discount of 8.95 points against the
premium of 2.95 points to its spot. Next month future is trading
with premium of 5.15 points. Counters where CoC is high are
TULIP, DCHL, JSWENERGY, GTOFFSHORE and IGL. Stocks with
negative CoC are MOSERBAER, ABAN, DLF, BHUSANSTL and
ASHOKLEY.
Total open interest of market has decreased from `1,42,621/-
crores to `95,373.48/- crores. Stock futures open interest has
decreased from `30,730/- crores to `25,065/- crores. Liquid
counters which added considerable open interest are
RELCAPITAL, COALINDIA, RELINFRA, HINDZINC and CAIRN.
Open interest was shed in big names like HEROMOTOCO,
ITC, GRASIM, JPASSOCIAT and BHEL.
Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis
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