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India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
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Infosys Technologies: Inline Sept-Q; USD revenue guidance ahead of
expectation [Aniruddha Bhosale]
While Sept-Q results were largely in line with our estimates (1% lower than
consensus), reaffirmation of the constant currency growth guidance (vs street
expectation of a 1-2ppts decline) for FY12E was in our view the biggest positive. It
also means that deterioration in global macro has not had any immediate impact of
client’ IT spending plans.
ONGC: Q2FY12 oil realisation to improve significantly; Buy [Harshad Katkar]
We expect ONGC’s oil net realization to jump by 60% QoQ to US$78/bbl in
2QFY12 versus the last four years' average of US$52/bbl, driven by duty cuts and
fuel price hikes implemented by the Government of India in June 2011. Moreover,
ONGC’s newly elected Chairman has indicated production growth of 15% in oil
and 58% in natural gas over the next five years. ONGC’s stock price is currently
implying an upstream subsidy sharing of 50% going ahead, as against 31-42%
historically. Reiterating Buy.
India steel sector: Global steel consumption forecast revised upwards
[Abhay Laijawala]
The World Steel Association (WSA) has raised its CY11/12 forecasts for global
apparent steel consumption by 3%/2%, respectively, in its latest Short Range
Outlook (SRO) for the global steel industry. It now forecasts global apparent steel
use to increase by a healthy 6.5%/5.4% in CY11/12. The revision has been driven
primarily by a 6%/7% upward revision to WSA's consumption forecast for China,
which is likely to contribute 46% of global steel demand over CY11-12.
Indian Telecom sector: New Telecom Policy: positive shift in the policy
stance [Srinivas Rao]
We highlight three factors which signal a significant shift in the government’s
policy stance: 1) spectrum allocation through a transparent ‘market-related’
process; 2) facilitate consolidation and frame an exit policy; and c) progressively
allow pooling, sharing and trading of spectrum. We believe allocating spectrum at
market value will benefit incumbents such as Bharti, Idea and Vodafone which
have robust cash flows, cost-efficient operations and a strong business franchise.
Bharti (Buy, target price Rs460) remains our top sector pick.
India Equity Strategy: Sep-Q preview: Early signs of revenue growth
slowdown? [Abhishek Saraf]
The key highlight of the upcoming September-quarter earnings season is likely to
be a slowdown in Sensex revenue growth. According to our analysts, Sensex
companies are likely to report 23% yoy growth in revenues vs. the 25% average
growth seen in the past 2 quarters. However, we would like to highlight that
excluding Reliance and ONGC, revenue growth for Sensex companies is likely to
show a sharp deceleration, coming in at 16% yoy versus an average of 23% yoy in
the past 2 quarters.
Asia Economics Daily : India IP growth remains weak [Kaushik Das]
August industrial production was up 4.1%yoy, slightly above our expectations.
Even when excluding the typically volatile capital goods series, the IP trend
reported a similar outturn. For the fiscal year so far, industrial production has risen
by 5.6%. The components of IP don't offer any major shift in trend. Mining (-
3.4%yoy) remains lackluster, manufacturing is below trend (+4.5%yoy), and
power production offers some relief (+9.5%yoy).
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Infosys Technologies: Inline Sept-Q; USD revenue guidance ahead of
expectation [Aniruddha Bhosale]
While Sept-Q results were largely in line with our estimates (1% lower than
consensus), reaffirmation of the constant currency growth guidance (vs street
expectation of a 1-2ppts decline) for FY12E was in our view the biggest positive. It
also means that deterioration in global macro has not had any immediate impact of
client’ IT spending plans.
ONGC: Q2FY12 oil realisation to improve significantly; Buy [Harshad Katkar]
We expect ONGC’s oil net realization to jump by 60% QoQ to US$78/bbl in
2QFY12 versus the last four years' average of US$52/bbl, driven by duty cuts and
fuel price hikes implemented by the Government of India in June 2011. Moreover,
ONGC’s newly elected Chairman has indicated production growth of 15% in oil
and 58% in natural gas over the next five years. ONGC’s stock price is currently
implying an upstream subsidy sharing of 50% going ahead, as against 31-42%
historically. Reiterating Buy.
India steel sector: Global steel consumption forecast revised upwards
[Abhay Laijawala]
The World Steel Association (WSA) has raised its CY11/12 forecasts for global
apparent steel consumption by 3%/2%, respectively, in its latest Short Range
Outlook (SRO) for the global steel industry. It now forecasts global apparent steel
use to increase by a healthy 6.5%/5.4% in CY11/12. The revision has been driven
primarily by a 6%/7% upward revision to WSA's consumption forecast for China,
which is likely to contribute 46% of global steel demand over CY11-12.
Indian Telecom sector: New Telecom Policy: positive shift in the policy
stance [Srinivas Rao]
We highlight three factors which signal a significant shift in the government’s
policy stance: 1) spectrum allocation through a transparent ‘market-related’
process; 2) facilitate consolidation and frame an exit policy; and c) progressively
allow pooling, sharing and trading of spectrum. We believe allocating spectrum at
market value will benefit incumbents such as Bharti, Idea and Vodafone which
have robust cash flows, cost-efficient operations and a strong business franchise.
Bharti (Buy, target price Rs460) remains our top sector pick.
India Equity Strategy: Sep-Q preview: Early signs of revenue growth
slowdown? [Abhishek Saraf]
The key highlight of the upcoming September-quarter earnings season is likely to
be a slowdown in Sensex revenue growth. According to our analysts, Sensex
companies are likely to report 23% yoy growth in revenues vs. the 25% average
growth seen in the past 2 quarters. However, we would like to highlight that
excluding Reliance and ONGC, revenue growth for Sensex companies is likely to
show a sharp deceleration, coming in at 16% yoy versus an average of 23% yoy in
the past 2 quarters.
Asia Economics Daily : India IP growth remains weak [Kaushik Das]
August industrial production was up 4.1%yoy, slightly above our expectations.
Even when excluding the typically volatile capital goods series, the IP trend
reported a similar outturn. For the fiscal year so far, industrial production has risen
by 5.6%. The components of IP don't offer any major shift in trend. Mining (-
3.4%yoy) remains lackluster, manufacturing is below trend (+4.5%yoy), and
power production offers some relief (+9.5%yoy).
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