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India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Indian Cement Sector: Wholesale prices playing catch up with retail prices
[Chockalingam Narayanan]
Notwithstanding the weak seasonal demand in the September quarter, we are
surprised to see producer-level inventories at 10-12 days (c35-40% 10-year
average). Clearly, with low stocks, the industry was able to push through price
hikes and sustain it even in September, when demand grew 2% YoY. Looking at
the industry and our sectoral hypothesis of rising utilisations closer to the
approaching peak season, we reiterate our Buy rating on stocks trading below
replacement costs (ACC, Grasim and Shree).
Bhushan Steel Ltd: Pollution board orders partial shutdown of sponge iron
units [Anuj Singla]
As per media reports, the Orissa State Pollution Control Board (OPCB) has
directed Bhushan Steel to close down the operations at six (out of ten) of its
sponge iron kilns, its coke oven plant and oxygen plant while allowing it to operate
other installations (Blast Furnace, HRM). The order has reported been issued on
alleged violation of pollution control norms. The company has also been asked to
stop construction work on the phase-III expansion (which will take the plant
capacity to 5.6mtpa) till all statutory clearances have been obtained.
Infosys Technologies: Reassuring outlook makes way for optimism; Buy
[Aniruddha Bhosale]
Following the better-than-expected pricing outlook, we have raised our FY13E EPS
estimate by 4.4% to INR158.4 and maintain Buy rating on the stock with a revised
target price of INR2,950. Moreover, despite Infosys outperforming the Sensex by
19% over the last one month, we see potential for the stock to increase by at
least 10% over the next three-six months. Our confidence stems from (a)
conservative estimates - we expect only a 2.6% USD revenue CQGR in FY13E vs.
5.5% for FY11E, and (b) potential for PE re-rating as the global macro improves.
Coal India Limited: Emergency measures may not be interpreted as
permanent [Manish Saxena]
We spoke to officials of Coal India and the power ministry following the half yearly
coal production performance review. Key take-aways are - (1) Coal India to divert
some amount of coal from e-auction on emergency basis to help power sector,
subject to power utilities getting rakes.
Global Economic Perspectives: Asian growth is slowing, that's all [Peter
Hooper]
Contrary to what appears to be the dominant view among investors, we don’t see
recession anywhere in Asia. But instead we see growth continuing to decline
gradually. Our forecasts for growth reflect the outlook of a period of weak growth
in the US and EU economies. While growth in the advanced economies is unlikely
to return to pre-GFC rates for many years, we see growth being especially slow in
the coming quarters, with the Eurozone in recession until early 2012.
Market Update: FX Strategy Weekly [George Saravelos]
The US currency bill and implications for the RMB, we examine the details and
developments surrounding the proposed US legislation and consider what they
mean for the Chinese yuan. At this stage, there remains much uncertainty as to
whether the bill will eventually be signed into law. China has retaliated by pushing
spot USD/CNY fixes higher, although we are doubtful that this trend can be
sustained for longer periods. The risk of tit-for-tat trade protectionism is likely
greater.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Indian Cement Sector: Wholesale prices playing catch up with retail prices
[Chockalingam Narayanan]
Notwithstanding the weak seasonal demand in the September quarter, we are
surprised to see producer-level inventories at 10-12 days (c35-40% 10-year
average). Clearly, with low stocks, the industry was able to push through price
hikes and sustain it even in September, when demand grew 2% YoY. Looking at
the industry and our sectoral hypothesis of rising utilisations closer to the
approaching peak season, we reiterate our Buy rating on stocks trading below
replacement costs (ACC, Grasim and Shree).
Bhushan Steel Ltd: Pollution board orders partial shutdown of sponge iron
units [Anuj Singla]
As per media reports, the Orissa State Pollution Control Board (OPCB) has
directed Bhushan Steel to close down the operations at six (out of ten) of its
sponge iron kilns, its coke oven plant and oxygen plant while allowing it to operate
other installations (Blast Furnace, HRM). The order has reported been issued on
alleged violation of pollution control norms. The company has also been asked to
stop construction work on the phase-III expansion (which will take the plant
capacity to 5.6mtpa) till all statutory clearances have been obtained.
Infosys Technologies: Reassuring outlook makes way for optimism; Buy
[Aniruddha Bhosale]
Following the better-than-expected pricing outlook, we have raised our FY13E EPS
estimate by 4.4% to INR158.4 and maintain Buy rating on the stock with a revised
target price of INR2,950. Moreover, despite Infosys outperforming the Sensex by
19% over the last one month, we see potential for the stock to increase by at
least 10% over the next three-six months. Our confidence stems from (a)
conservative estimates - we expect only a 2.6% USD revenue CQGR in FY13E vs.
5.5% for FY11E, and (b) potential for PE re-rating as the global macro improves.
Coal India Limited: Emergency measures may not be interpreted as
permanent [Manish Saxena]
We spoke to officials of Coal India and the power ministry following the half yearly
coal production performance review. Key take-aways are - (1) Coal India to divert
some amount of coal from e-auction on emergency basis to help power sector,
subject to power utilities getting rakes.
Global Economic Perspectives: Asian growth is slowing, that's all [Peter
Hooper]
Contrary to what appears to be the dominant view among investors, we don’t see
recession anywhere in Asia. But instead we see growth continuing to decline
gradually. Our forecasts for growth reflect the outlook of a period of weak growth
in the US and EU economies. While growth in the advanced economies is unlikely
to return to pre-GFC rates for many years, we see growth being especially slow in
the coming quarters, with the Eurozone in recession until early 2012.
Market Update: FX Strategy Weekly [George Saravelos]
The US currency bill and implications for the RMB, we examine the details and
developments surrounding the proposed US legislation and consider what they
mean for the Chinese yuan. At this stage, there remains much uncertainty as to
whether the bill will eventually be signed into law. China has retaliated by pushing
spot USD/CNY fixes higher, although we are doubtful that this trend can be
sustained for longer periods. The risk of tit-for-tat trade protectionism is likely
greater.
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