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Management meet takeaways
CHANGE
FY12 intact, FY13 may be weak, FCCB issue not a big worry
We met the management of Sintex industries. Key takeaways from our
meeting were: 1) Confident in meeting FY12 guidance, 2) FY13 may be
weak depending on global headwinds, and 3) sufficient liquidity to buy
back FCCBs in FY13. We believe the current price factors in modest
growth and a 300-350bp decline in EBITDA margins.
CATALYST
Large order wins from government and new OEM relationships
Key catalysts for Sintex over the next twelve months would include:
§ New order wins from government for its low-cost housing
projects/prefab business;
§ New OEM relationship emerging with the help of its overseas
acquisitions.
VALUATION
Reiterate BUY; TP of INR183 on DCF based valuation
We reiterate our BUY rating. Our TP of INR183 is based on a 2-stage DCF
model. Our model assumes a WACC of 14.2% and terminal growth rate of
5% beyond the forecast period (FY16E). Our TP implies 43.9% upside
potential from current levels. Key risk to Sintex is prolonged slowdown in
the global environment and slower execution in its monolithic business.
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Management meet takeaways
CHANGE
FY12 intact, FY13 may be weak, FCCB issue not a big worry
We met the management of Sintex industries. Key takeaways from our
meeting were: 1) Confident in meeting FY12 guidance, 2) FY13 may be
weak depending on global headwinds, and 3) sufficient liquidity to buy
back FCCBs in FY13. We believe the current price factors in modest
growth and a 300-350bp decline in EBITDA margins.
CATALYST
Large order wins from government and new OEM relationships
Key catalysts for Sintex over the next twelve months would include:
§ New order wins from government for its low-cost housing
projects/prefab business;
§ New OEM relationship emerging with the help of its overseas
acquisitions.
VALUATION
Reiterate BUY; TP of INR183 on DCF based valuation
We reiterate our BUY rating. Our TP of INR183 is based on a 2-stage DCF
model. Our model assumes a WACC of 14.2% and terminal growth rate of
5% beyond the forecast period (FY16E). Our TP implies 43.9% upside
potential from current levels. Key risk to Sintex is prolonged slowdown in
the global environment and slower execution in its monolithic business.
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