26 October 2011

Arshiya International ltd ; Target – Rs 210 ::Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011

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History and Business Model
Arshiya International Ltd (AIL)is the flagship company of Arshiya group, having a
10 years lineage in logistics. It is a fast emerging end-to-end service and solution
provider in logistics and supply chain management. Arshiya has pioneered the
FTWZ (Free Trade Warehousing Zone) concept in India, with the zones to act as
trading and warehousing hubs for international trade. It has entered into various
verticals such as FTWZs, Domestic Distriparks, Rail Business etc.
Financials
The Company has been growing at a steady rate with revenue and profit CAGR of
35% and 36% resp. over FY07-FY11. For the year FY11, net sales of Rs 821.5
crores was reported, i.e. a Y-o-Y increase of 56%. Net profit decreased to Rs
82crores over a net Profit of Rs 98crores reported in FY10, down by 16%. Net
sales Q1FY12 grew by 26% at Rs 223 crores against Rs 177crores in Q1FY11.
The change in asset capitalization policy of the company has led to a lower interest
expense thus impacting the PAT positively. Mumbai FTWZ’s phase 1, comprising
of 3 warehouses, was operational at a utilization rate of 100% in the entire quarter.
As per company expectations, one warehouse would get added in Q2FY12 and
another 3-4 will get added by FY12 end.
We expect consolidated revenue to grow at a CAGR of 36% over FY11-FY13E
supported by commencement of two FTWZ in FY12, growth in logistics and supply
chain management business, and addition of new rakes leading to expansion of
capacity in rail business.
Growth Drivers
• Complete Logistics Provider: Arshiya has entered into various verticals such
as FTWZs, Domestic Distriparks, Rail Business etc thus presenting itself as a
complete logistics solution provider.
• First mover in FTWZ space in India: Arshiya is pioneering the FTWZ concept
in India, with the zones to act as trading and warehousing hubs for international
trade. The company had taken initiative to develop India’s first FTWZ at Panvel,
Mumbai spanning across 165 acres. It is in process of setting up second FTWZ
at Delhi, followed by Nagpur and two more at South and East. These five
strategically located FTWZs across India will bring about a transformation in
Indian logistics.
• Rail business holds promise: Arshiya currently operates 15 railway rakes and
it plans to expand this capacity to 30 by FY13E. Arshiya has already planned an
investment outlay of Rs 626crores for its Railway Infrastructure projects.
• Distripark business: Arshiya’s first domestic distripark is located at Khurja.
Phase I of Khurja – distripark is expected to commence its operation in Q3FY12
and phase II construction is scheduled towards completion by Q1FY14E. The
location of Khurja (near Delhi) is of strategic importance as it lies at the junction
of the Eastern and Western freight corridors. Arshiya has also planned to set up
four more domestic distriparks on the same lines.
• Synergies between verticals: Its own FTWZs and domestic distriparks will
serve as captive cargo consolidation and aggregation hubs in India’s key
markets providing captive cargo for Arshiya Rail Infrastructure to move between
the infrastructure hubs. On commencement of operations of all the FTWZs, wellconnected
by rail infrastructure, the complete picture of the entire logistics
offerings by the company would get clearer.
Valuations:
At CMP of Rs 159, stock trades at PE of 10.3x and 5.0x its FY12E and FY13E
earnings of Rs 15.4 and Rs 31.6 respectively as per Bloomberg estimates. Arshiya
is the first Indian company to focus on the higher logistics costs in India and work
towards providing a solution for the same by setting up FTWZs. The company is
establishing itself as a complete logistics provider with no notable peer comparison
available. We believe Arshiya is in a sweet spot expect it to provide good
investment opportunity.
Technicals
This scrip has seemingly formed a base near 120-140 zone. It is now having stiff
resistance at 170 and surpassing this will open way till 38% retracement levels of
210 in short term. The drastic fall from top of 360 has been arrested near to 120.
The volume activity at lows provides confidence and activities of new bulls.


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Way2Wealth :: Diwali Picks 2011

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