23 October 2011

All Eyes on the Euro Zone :: Angel Broking,

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All Eyes on the Euro Zone
Sensex (16786) / Nifty (5050)
Markets opened with a neutral bias on Monday's session and
traded in a range throughout the week. As stated in our earlier
report, markets faced strong resistance near the multiple
resistance zone of 17260 - 17200 / 5198 - 5177. Hence,
every attempt of scaling this level failed during the week and a
selling pressure dragged indices lower to register a weekly close
around the daily "20 EMA". This average is currently placed at
16714 / 5038 level. As expected, 16510 / 5034 acted as a
decent support level for the week. On the sector front, the
correction was mainly led by IT, Realty and Oil & Gas counters.
The Sensex ended with a nominal loss of 1.74%, whereas the
Nifty lost 1.60%, vis-à-vis the previous week.
Pattern Formation
􀂄 We are observing a positive crossover in Weekly
"RSI - Smoothened" momentum oscillator.
􀂄 On the Weekly chart, there is a "Horizontal Line" resistance
at 17256 / 5198 level.
􀂄 The "20 EMA" on the Weekly chart is now placed at
17215 / 5172 level.
􀂄 On the Daily chart, the "20 EMA" is placed at
16714 / 5025 level.
(Note: All technical evidences mentioned last week are almost unchanged;
therefore, we continue to mention them along with a single addition of
Daily "20 EMA")

Future Outlook
Yet another week ended with a failure of crossing the strong
resistance zone of 17260 / 5198. We reiterate that the bulls
are facing a major hurdle of this Weekly "Horizontal Line" and
"20 EMA" near 17256 / 5198 levels. Therefore, we are of the
opinion that unless we get some strong positive trigger on the
global or domestic front, our markets may not cross this stiff
resistance zone. On an optimistic note, a positive crossover in
Weekly "RSI - smoothened" oscillator is still intact, which may
come into action if indices manage to cross and sustain above
17256 / 5198 level. In this case, indices may rally towards the
gap area of 17358 - 17665 / 5230 - 5323 created on August
5, 2011. On the other hand, indices have a decent support of
Daily "20 EMA", which is now placed around 16714 - 16669 /
5025 - 5011 levels. Indices are likely to test 16460 - 16300 /
4944 - 4890 levels if indices manage to sustain below
16669 / 5011 level. Broadly speaking, indices have a trading
range of 17256 to 16669 / 5198 to 5011. A violation of this
range on either side would lead to a clear direction of the trend.
Moreover, traders should take a note that the markets may
react to various global and domestic events in the coming week.
The decision of the European Union on the EFSF and monetary
policy coupled with derivative expiry on Tuesday would lead to
increased volatility in the markets.
Therefore, we advise traders to stay light on positions and
trade with strict stop losses.

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