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JLR volume for Aug'11 was well ahead of estimates, up 31%/11.1% YoY/MoM to 21,242 units (IDBIe 19,500 units). YTDFY12 volume was up 10% to 102,451 units.
Jaguar volume continued its downward trend, down 10%/22% YoY/MoM to 3,409 units. Management expects volume to improve from September onwards on launch of new model year XF and enhanced marketing efforts. YTDFY12 volume was down 23% to 19,124 units.
LR volume surprised positively, up 43%/20.9% YoY/MoM to 17,833 units. We believe the better than expected performance was largely on account of Evoque dispatches being included from August onwards. YTDFY12 volume was up 23% to 83,327 units.
Management in our latest interaction has indicated weakness in volumes from US and Europe; however it has also stated that this will be more than compensated by continued strong traction from China, Russia and other emerging markets, aided by new/refreshed launches in J & LR. We maintain our FY12 volume estimate at 273k units.
Positive trend was visible even in volumes of BMW, Mercedes and Audi, with YoY growth ranging from 8-17% and MoM decline of 11-14% (Germany registered strongest volumes across all the three players), though JLR bucked the trend in August by outpacing peers.
In case of BMW, Germany grew by 60%, China was up 9%, while Brazil and Russia grew by 14-20%. For Mercedes, Western Europe was up 14% (Germany up 24%), Asia Pacific was up 3%, while US was down 2%. For Audi, Europe was up 14% (Germany up 20%), while it outgrew its peers in China with 26% growth and US with 11% growth.
We continue to believe that risk-reward is favourable for Tata Motors and reiterate BUY. We believe that the current valuation largely factors in concerns over global macro environment (especially Europe and the US) and weak car franchisee. Nonetheless, we expect overhang on the stock to continue till the global macro environment remains uncertain. In addition, we would keep a close eye on who replaces Mr. Carl-Peter Forster (the outgoing MD & CEO of TTMT), as we believe he was instrumental in turning around JLR fortunes.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� �
JLR volume for Aug'11 was well ahead of estimates, up 31%/11.1% YoY/MoM to 21,242 units (IDBIe 19,500 units). YTDFY12 volume was up 10% to 102,451 units.
Jaguar volume continued its downward trend, down 10%/22% YoY/MoM to 3,409 units. Management expects volume to improve from September onwards on launch of new model year XF and enhanced marketing efforts. YTDFY12 volume was down 23% to 19,124 units.
LR volume surprised positively, up 43%/20.9% YoY/MoM to 17,833 units. We believe the better than expected performance was largely on account of Evoque dispatches being included from August onwards. YTDFY12 volume was up 23% to 83,327 units.
Management in our latest interaction has indicated weakness in volumes from US and Europe; however it has also stated that this will be more than compensated by continued strong traction from China, Russia and other emerging markets, aided by new/refreshed launches in J & LR. We maintain our FY12 volume estimate at 273k units.
Positive trend was visible even in volumes of BMW, Mercedes and Audi, with YoY growth ranging from 8-17% and MoM decline of 11-14% (Germany registered strongest volumes across all the three players), though JLR bucked the trend in August by outpacing peers.
In case of BMW, Germany grew by 60%, China was up 9%, while Brazil and Russia grew by 14-20%. For Mercedes, Western Europe was up 14% (Germany up 24%), Asia Pacific was up 3%, while US was down 2%. For Audi, Europe was up 14% (Germany up 20%), while it outgrew its peers in China with 26% growth and US with 11% growth.
We continue to believe that risk-reward is favourable for Tata Motors and reiterate BUY. We believe that the current valuation largely factors in concerns over global macro environment (especially Europe and the US) and weak car franchisee. Nonetheless, we expect overhang on the stock to continue till the global macro environment remains uncertain. In addition, we would keep a close eye on who replaces Mr. Carl-Peter Forster (the outgoing MD & CEO of TTMT), as we believe he was instrumental in turning around JLR fortunes.
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