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India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
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TP : Rs501
Investment Rationale
§ Strong execution track record, fair visibility on the earnings, strong pipeline coupled with both Para IVs (15 FTFs)
as well as niche therapies and well diversified presence across the key markets, makes Lupin as one of the
attractive stocks in the Pharma pack
§ Growth in US would be triggered by ramp up in Antara, launch of AllerNaze and 11 ANDAs including 3-4 OC’s
and 2 FTF’s in FY12. The approval for Suprax Chewable Tablets would help the company to address price
erosion in its Suprax franchise
§ Company expects 3-4 products from its OC portfolio to hit the market by Oct’12E (addressable market US$300-
500mn). US likely to witness ~11ANDA launches in FY12E and FY13E each
§ Key FTFs launches -Fortamet (US$70mn, likely launch Jun’11) and Ziprasidone (US1.2bn, likely launch Mar’12)
will drive US revenues. Lupin continues to remain the 5th largest generic player by prescriptions in the US
generics space
§ In India, improved contribution from existing products and 41 new product launches will lead to 18% revenue
CAGR over FY11-13E
§ Growth in Japan would be driven by 7 new launches in FY12 and increased sourcing of products from India
§ Healthy return ratios (RoE> 25%)
Valuations
§ We expect earnings to grow at 14% CAGR over FY11-13E.
§ At CMP, the stock is trading at 22.3x/ 18.7x, FY12E/ FY13E EPS of Rs21/ Rs25 respectively.
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