17 September 2011

Hindustan Unilever – Has HUVR cut Surf Excel prices?::RBS

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Media reports say that HUVR has cut Surf Excel Blue prices by 21%. Our channel checks tell
us this is more of localised promotions that some of the modern retail formats are running.
There is no structural drop in prices either in conventional or modern retail, so in effect no
cause for concern. Maintain Buy.


No structural cut in detergent brand - Surf Excel Blue prices
􀀟 Media reported that HUVR has effectively cut the prices of the premium detergent brand-
Surf Excel Blue by 21%.
􀀟 As per our feedback this is more of a regional and localised promotion which one of the
modern retail formats has been running. At various points of time, such limited offer
promotions are run to stimulate demand, and most of the times these schemes are not
even national.
􀀟 We have confirmed that the company has not changed any of its official prices for any of
its brands, nor dropped prices for any of its products to modern retail.
Management continues to manage business to drive growth
􀀟 HUVR's step up in volume growth in the past 2 years is closely linked to the innovation it
has put through in its exisiting and new product offerings. Over 50% of its products have
been re-launched in the past 2 years.


􀀟 The biggest success in the past 2 years has been the emergence of 'Dove' as a premium
brand accross categories, and its growing market share in shampoos and soaps.
􀀟 Its focus on services in categories like ice-creams, coffee remain intense, and it has
continued to open new formats to strengthen the brand positioning.
We remain positive on the stock, recommend Buy at declines
􀀟 We are expecting a 120bp improvement in EBITDA margins over the next 3 years, which we
believe will drive EPS growth of 14.9% which would be ahead of the expected revenue growth
of 13%.
􀀟 HUVR's volume growth has been in line or ahead of the industry average volume growth for
the past 6 quarters, which indicates the renewed management focus. The level of innovations
in existing categories have been stepped up, and its focus to participate on the growth in the
categories of the future is also sustained.
􀀟 We reiterate our Buy recommendation with EPS forecasts which are around 3.5% ahead of
consensus estimates.


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