Emkay Alternate Intelligence - Nifty likely to test resistance levels of 5180-5200

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Emkay Alternate Intelligence

Nifty likely to test resistance levels of 5180-5200

View: Overall F&O data indicates positive sentiments prevailing in the street. A move towards the resistance levels of 5180-5200 seems likely. We expect NSE VIX to decline towards the mean levels of 22% in coming sessions.

Nifty September futures open interest remained unchanged at 26.57 million shares yesterday. However, FIIs witnessed an increase of 3.79% contracts in open interest from 0.67 million contracts to 0.69 million contracts. They turned net buyers to the tune of Rs2.82 billion suggesting long accumulation.

Maximum accumulation among Nifty call options witnessed an upward shift from 5000 strike (5.08 million shares) to 5200 strike (5.65 million shares). Interestingly, ITM call strikes have started observing closure of positions. Maximum accumulation is seen in 5400 strike (addition of 0.47 million shares). Among Nifty put options, increased accumulation is observed in strikes of 5000 and 5100. Open interest in 5000 strike increased to 6.69 million shares from 5.97 million shares. The positive shift in accumulation pattern indicates positive sentiments prevailing. 

NSE VIX declined to 27.86% from 28.66% yesterday. It continues to remain at higher than 1 standard deviation away from mean indicating further decline cannot be ruled out. In a data window of 60 days, the mean is 22.30% and standard deviation is close to 4.43.