30 September 2011

Cadila Healthcare:: Emkay: Top Buys


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TP : Rs1021
Investment Rationale
§ Cadlila Healthcare emerges our top pick given its strong growth prospects (>20% revenue & earnings CAGR
over FY11-13E), strong domestic foothold, wide geographical reach and foray into difficult to manufacture
generics such as transdermal patches, bio-similar and vaccines.
§ US (contributes 21%) likely to witness 8-10 ANDA launches in FY12E and FY13E each. Currently 67
ANDAs have been approved and 43 been launched. Expect FY11-13E revenue CAGR of 22%
§ Hospira JV currently has launched 3 products. Cadila has recently started the supplies of docetaxel to
Hospira (Q4’11 sales were Rs1.1bn). 3 more products set to get introduced in US and 6 in Europe over the
next 18 months. Hospira ramp-up to allay concerns around Nycomed JV
§ Bayer JV is expected to commence the operations from H2FY12, with a focus on women’s healthcare, metabolic
disorders, diagnostic imaging, CVS, oncology and anti diabetic
§ Current strategic alliance with Abbott for 24 products (for emerging markets), can be extended by another 40
products
§ Expect international business to grow at a CAGR of 22% over FY11-13E
§ Domestic formulations (contributes 38%) continues to grow above industry rates –cash cow for the company.
§ The company is aiming to attain revenue of US$3bn by 2016. Healthy return ratios (RoE > 35%)
Valuations
§ We expect earnings to grow at 25% CAGR over FY11-13E to Rs10.5bn.
§ At CMP, the stock is trading at 21x/ 16x, FY12E/ FY13E EPS of Rs39.9/ Rs51.1 respectively


For full list click link below:

Emkay: Top Buys and Sells

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