06 August 2011

TVS Motor July’11 volume: Scooters and motorcycles drive growth ::Standard Chartered Research,

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TVS Motor
July’11 volume: Scooters and motorcycles drive growth


 TVS’ total sales rose 16% yoy to 192,000 units, driven
by 16% yoy growth in 2W and 13% yoy growth in 3W
sales.
 Scooters continue to be the key growth driver – sales up
24% yoy; motorcycles also post strong 19% yoy growth.
 Given the rising competitive environment, TVS appears
the most vulnerable to lose market share.
 Maintain IN-LINE.


Sales up 16% yoy to 192,000 units. TVS Motor’s July
2011 sales were up 16% yoy (+4% m-o-m) at 192,000 units.
While domestic sales rose 13% yoy to 164,500 units,
exports grew 48% yoy to 27,500 units.
Scooters boost 2W growth. TVS Motor’s July two-wheeler
sales grew 16% yoy to 188,500 units. Growth was led by
24% yoy growth (+13% m-o-m) from the scooters segment
to 50,000 units and 19% yoy growth (4% m-o-m) in the
motorcycles segment to 72,500 units. Mopeds, however,
posted slower 7% yoy growth to 66,000 units.
3W sales up 13% yoy to 3,500 units. Three-wheeler
volume grew 13% yoy (down 8% m-o-m) in July to 3,500
units. Growth was driven primarily by strong export off-take
– exports more than doubled yoy to 2,500 units. Domestic
3W sales declined 47% yoy in July to 1,000 units.
Exports momentum continues. TVS Motor’s total exports
grew 29% yoy to 27,500 units. While two-wheeler exports
were up 25% yoy to 25,000 units, 3W exports more than
doubled to 2,500 units.
Valuation. In a rising competitive environment and the
paucity of new launches in most of FY12E, we believe TVS
appears the most vulnerable amongst the top three 2W
players in India. While scooters and mopeds are driving
volume growth, TVS has been unable to ramp up its
motorcycle volume. Also, although 3W exports are doing
well currently, TVS has failed to gain any meaningful
presence in the domestic market. At 10.1x FY12E earnings
and at 5x EV/EBITDA, the stock appears fairly valued.
Maintain IN-LINE.


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