19 August 2011

Platinum over gold as ratio nears parity :: Macquarie Research,

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Platinum over gold as ratio nears parity
Feature article
 The past week has seen a clear shift in sentiment across all markets with
movements in the precious metals space reflective of the fearful mood that
has gripped markets. While gold has been the clearest beneficiaries of the
recent debt market malaise, we wonder whether greater value is starting to
emerge in platinum, given the Pt:Au ratio is approaching levels not seen since
the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.
Taking a closer look at Chinese silver prices
 This week we also take a look at the Chinese silver market. While we have
seen an explosion in trading activity within China, this is not reflective of
strong industrial demand. On the contrary, the Chinese domestic market
usually prices at a discount to LBMA pricing and this is causing signficant
distortions TC/RCs for base metals concentrates with high silver content.
Market Wrap – Gold surges as real interest rates collapse
 Financial markets have taken a considerable turn for the worse in the last
week. The weak PMI data at the start of last weak instantly took off any gloss
from the increase in the US government debt ceiling, with the deceleration in
these key leading indicators creating concern that most of the western world
is sliding towards stagnation/recession. The widening of spreads in Italy and
Spain then created huge angst that financial markets are on the cusp of facing
a serious systemic problem. The S&P downgrade of the US long-term credit
rating on the weekend has only compounded current concerns.
 For the most part, the jump in the gold price has largely been in line with
movements in other indictors. The stronger gold price has largely tracked the
rise in the Swiss franc or Japanese yen despite intervention from the
respective central banks. .
 Golds gains have also mostly been in line with the drop in 10-year TIPs. Gold
did trade higher in Asian trading hours despite little movement in interest
rates, although prices did pull back somewhat until bond yields fell in Monday
trading. It is not unheard of that gold has risen when real interest rates are
stagnant, or even rising, but it doesn’t appear that we have seen this
relationship break down just yet.
 The CFTC data showed a significant increase in net long positions of around
10% over the past two weeks to 28.9moz. We wonder if this kind of growth in
speculative interest can be maintained without major movements in other
markets. ETF intererest has also been incredibly strong, rising close to a
1moz over the past week and 2moz over the past weeks. On a rolling 4 week
basis, inflows have risen to ~3.7Moz, which while strong is well short of the
massive 13.6moz seen in 1Q09.

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