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Domestic sales growth remains sedate. Sales trends: Passenger car
sales were down -2% yoy vs. +6% YTD (driven by weak consumer
sentiment and the realignment of production at Maruti); commercial
vehicle sales were up 25% vs. 19% YTD (driven by light trucks +38%
yoy; heavy commercial vehicle sales were up +11% yoy), and two
wheeler sales were up +15% vs. 18% YTD.
Key data points on market share: Maruti continued to cede market
share to competition (-380bp YTD) in the passenger car segment, Tata
Motors has gained (+50bp) market share in the commercial vehicle
segment. Hero Honda gained strength in the domestic motorcycle
market (+250bps YTD).
Global luxury car sales growth moderates: Luxury brand Audi saw
healthy growth of 16.0%, while BMW’s and Mercedes-Benz’s growth
moderated at 8% and 3%, respectively, in July 2011. Audi's growth was
driven by strong China Sales (up 35% YoY), while US grew 17.0%.
BMW saw a growth of 12% YoY in US, while China grew 36% YoY,
however, weaker Europe sales pulled down the growth rates. Mercedes
saw sedate Chinese growth of 2% YoY, while US grew 7% YoY.
Global macro developments to impact growth outlook: Post the
recent developments in the western countries, Our J.P. Morgan global
autos team has lowered their SAAR forecasts for the US and Western
Europe. Our NA auto production forecast is revised to 13.0MM in 2012,
down slightly from 13.5MM. Our Western European SAAR forecast is
now 12.8/13.3MM versus 13/14MM previously.
The auto sector (-5% mom) outperformed a falling Sensex (-8% mom)
during the month (growth expectations remain muted given a challenging
macro environment). Tata Motors in particular declined 20% over the
month, in line with the correction of global auto stocks – BMW (1M
decline of 14%) and Daimler (1M decline of 26%). Outlook: We believe
that sales growth in India will likely remain weak over the next few
months and expect sales growth to revive over 2HFY12 as economic
activity picks up.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Domestic sales growth remains sedate. Sales trends: Passenger car
sales were down -2% yoy vs. +6% YTD (driven by weak consumer
sentiment and the realignment of production at Maruti); commercial
vehicle sales were up 25% vs. 19% YTD (driven by light trucks +38%
yoy; heavy commercial vehicle sales were up +11% yoy), and two
wheeler sales were up +15% vs. 18% YTD.
Key data points on market share: Maruti continued to cede market
share to competition (-380bp YTD) in the passenger car segment, Tata
Motors has gained (+50bp) market share in the commercial vehicle
segment. Hero Honda gained strength in the domestic motorcycle
market (+250bps YTD).
Global luxury car sales growth moderates: Luxury brand Audi saw
healthy growth of 16.0%, while BMW’s and Mercedes-Benz’s growth
moderated at 8% and 3%, respectively, in July 2011. Audi's growth was
driven by strong China Sales (up 35% YoY), while US grew 17.0%.
BMW saw a growth of 12% YoY in US, while China grew 36% YoY,
however, weaker Europe sales pulled down the growth rates. Mercedes
saw sedate Chinese growth of 2% YoY, while US grew 7% YoY.
Global macro developments to impact growth outlook: Post the
recent developments in the western countries, Our J.P. Morgan global
autos team has lowered their SAAR forecasts for the US and Western
Europe. Our NA auto production forecast is revised to 13.0MM in 2012,
down slightly from 13.5MM. Our Western European SAAR forecast is
now 12.8/13.3MM versus 13/14MM previously.
The auto sector (-5% mom) outperformed a falling Sensex (-8% mom)
during the month (growth expectations remain muted given a challenging
macro environment). Tata Motors in particular declined 20% over the
month, in line with the correction of global auto stocks – BMW (1M
decline of 14%) and Daimler (1M decline of 26%). Outlook: We believe
that sales growth in India will likely remain weak over the next few
months and expect sales growth to revive over 2HFY12 as economic
activity picks up.
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