06 August 2011

Indian equities (-4.9% wow) in risk-off mode as global growth fears re-emerge Goldman Sachs

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Indian equities (-4.9% wow) in risk-off mode as global growth fears re-emerge
 All sectors ended in the red this week again with Infotech & Service sectors losing 6.7% and 5% respectively wow.
 Foreign outflows were around US$ 210mn, DIIs were net buyers (of US$ 291mn), as of close of Aug 03, 2011.
 Gold (+3.9%) and Silver (4.4%) gained the most wow in the flight to quality. Energy (-5.5%) fared the worst.
 65% of 1QFY12 earnings released so far have been below expectations and a mere 20% above expectations.
Overview
Respite from the uncertainty around the US debt
deal was short lived as Indian equities followed
global stocks in a sharp sell-off on US and global
growth concerns. The NIFTY touched a 52 week low
on Friday (-4.9% wow)  in a slide that spanned
across sectors. The week saw a string of
disappointing data releases with July PMI falling to
53.6 from 55.3 and a report from the PM’s economic
advisory council revising down FY12 growth to 8.2%
from 9%. INRUSD depreciated sharply to 44.74 on
concerns of an outflow of funds.
NIFTY price performance
NIFTY was down 4.9% wow & has lost 15.1% ytd
Source: NSE, DataStream, GS Global ECS Research.
Foreign and domestic flows
Foreign investors sold US$ 210mn wtd while DIIs
bought US$ 291 mn as of close of Aug 03, 2011
Earnings sentiment
MSCI India Financials had the weakest EPS
sentiment (-16%) wow. MSCI India is now trading
at 13.2X forward earnings.
Commodities
Energy (-5.5%) underperformed while Metals
(1.2%) outperformed wow.
Economic Events & Earnings Results
Industrial Production (Aug 12); 1QFY12 results:
Sobha Dev (Aug 9); Coal India, BPCL and Hindalco
Ind (Aug 12

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