25 August 2011

India Two-wheeler Industry- High export potential complements robust domestic story::Credit Suisse,

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● The global two-wheeler market size stands at 55 mn units with
China and India accounting for ~45% of the market. Given the
income levels and the warmer climates, two-wheelers are popular
largely in Asia, Latin America and Africa.
● Exports from India are predominantly to Africa, South Asia, Latin
America as the markets of South East Asia and of Brazil in Latin
America are dominated by Honda and Yamaha, who jointly
command a ~90% share in these markets.
● Bajaj Auto has a 65% share of the export pie given that as part of
its agreement with Honda, Hero was not allowed to export to
markets barring a few in South Asia. Africa is the fastest growing
market and provides a third of Bajajís motorcycle export revenues.
● The addressable market for Indian manufacturers stands at ~13
mn units making this ~USD15 bn opportunity. TVS and Bajaj
currently have a 10% share here. If Hero gets it right, this could be
a big opportunity, which is not factored into our numbers. Hero
management is targeting ~1 mn units of annual exports by FY16


In Africa, the largest and fastest growing market for Indian motorcycle
manufacturers (read Bajaj Auto), a motorcycle is used as a taxi and
the competition is largely against the Chinese manufacturers. Indian
companies with their better quality have fared well in this market. As
the market moves from a being a taxi market to a personal mobility
market, the share of Indian companies should improve further.

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