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India’s GSM net adds weakened further in July to 7.6m, down 11% M/M,
according to data from COAI. July compares worse than the 9.7m monthly net
add rate in the quarter to June, which for the GSM market was 32% lower vs.
Q4.
Large GSM telcos see continued net add declines: Bharti, Vodafone and
Idea, which saw their monthly net adds rates decline 28%/33%/27% in the
quarter to June vs. the previous quarter, witnessed further declines of
29%/29%/26% vs. June. This is rather a slow start to Q2. However, we believe
this likely reflects GSM telcos’ continued focus on “quality” subs i.e., minute
and revenue generating subs as well as selectively raising tariffs. We also note
recent reports of dealer commissions being cut by some telcos which limits the
incentive of dealers in our view to push SIMs aggressively – sometimes lowARPU generating SIMS.
Smaller telcos: Grouping Uninor, Videocon, S Tel and Etisalat as the “new”
players, their cumulative net adds are down only 1.4% M/M. They accounted
for 16% of GSM net adds (14% in June, 13% May, 16% April), contributing
6.5% of the GSM sub base (6.4% in June). However, the highest VLR ratio
(active data) among these telcos is only 58% (Uninor). Uninor’s net adds
increased 12.1% after the 17.5% decline in June.
VLR update for June: Idea, Bharti and Vodafone continue to have the highest
ratio of “active” subs at 93%, 89%, 81%, vs. 70% for the market
According to revenue data for the quarter to June: Bharti, Idea and
Vodafone's cumulative market share increased modestly by 120pp to 66.3%
Q/Q. BSNL lost the highest market share (100 bps) in the June quarter, while
Bharti gained 70 bps. “New” players now account for 2.3% of the revenue base,
up from 2.0% in the quarter-to-March driven by Uninor.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
India’s GSM net adds weakened further in July to 7.6m, down 11% M/M,
according to data from COAI. July compares worse than the 9.7m monthly net
add rate in the quarter to June, which for the GSM market was 32% lower vs.
Q4.
Large GSM telcos see continued net add declines: Bharti, Vodafone and
Idea, which saw their monthly net adds rates decline 28%/33%/27% in the
quarter to June vs. the previous quarter, witnessed further declines of
29%/29%/26% vs. June. This is rather a slow start to Q2. However, we believe
this likely reflects GSM telcos’ continued focus on “quality” subs i.e., minute
and revenue generating subs as well as selectively raising tariffs. We also note
recent reports of dealer commissions being cut by some telcos which limits the
incentive of dealers in our view to push SIMs aggressively – sometimes lowARPU generating SIMS.
Smaller telcos: Grouping Uninor, Videocon, S Tel and Etisalat as the “new”
players, their cumulative net adds are down only 1.4% M/M. They accounted
for 16% of GSM net adds (14% in June, 13% May, 16% April), contributing
6.5% of the GSM sub base (6.4% in June). However, the highest VLR ratio
(active data) among these telcos is only 58% (Uninor). Uninor’s net adds
increased 12.1% after the 17.5% decline in June.
VLR update for June: Idea, Bharti and Vodafone continue to have the highest
ratio of “active” subs at 93%, 89%, 81%, vs. 70% for the market
According to revenue data for the quarter to June: Bharti, Idea and
Vodafone's cumulative market share increased modestly by 120pp to 66.3%
Q/Q. BSNL lost the highest market share (100 bps) in the June quarter, while
Bharti gained 70 bps. “New” players now account for 2.3% of the revenue base,
up from 2.0% in the quarter-to-March driven by Uninor.
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