09 August 2011

Hold Steel Authority of India (SAIL) Target : Rs 128:: ICICI Securities

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P e r f o r m a  n c  e   d e n t e d   b y   h i g h e r   c o s t s …
SAIL’s Q1Y12 results came below our  estimates on the back of higher
input costs and employee costs. Net sales came in at | 10926 crore (our
estimate: | 11457.1 crore), higher by 19.6% YoY but a decline of 10.2%
QoQ. Sales volumes at 2.75 million tonnes (MT) was lower by 12.4% QoQ
but higher by 18% YoY. EBITDA margins remained under pressure (down
~  820  bps  YoY,  ~720  bps  QoQ)  due  to  higher  raw  material  cost  and
stood at 12.0%. EBITDA at | 1311.4 crore (our estimate: | 1833.7 crore)
was lower by 28.8% YoY and 44% QoQ. Net profit at | 838.1 crore (our
estimate: | 1121.7 crore) was lower by 28.8% YoY and 44.4% QoQ.
ƒ EBITDA/tonne takes a hit due to higher input and employee cost
During the quarter under review, the EBITDA per tonne stood at ~|
4775.5 per tonne, decline of 36.5% QoQ and 40.5% YoY. In Q1FY12,
a steep rise in inputs costs had led to a sharp decline in the
operating margins of the company (down ~ 820 bps YoY, ~720 bps
QoQ). The impact of higher coal prices on Q1FY11 costs was ~| 580
crore (out of this ~| 422 crore  was on account of higher cost
imported coking coal). The employee cost stood at | 2251.18 crore
(increase of 11.9% YoY and 9.7%  QoQ) due to the increase in
dearness allowance (DA) and other provisions. The impact of the
higher DA was ~ | 110 crore while increased provisioning for
retirement benefits and leave encashment resulted in a | 100 crore
increase in employee cost.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 120, the stock is trading at FY13E PE of 10.6x and FY13E
EV/EBITDA of 7.9x. Factoring in the concerns on higher raw material
prices and higher wage cost, we have valued the stock at 5.5x EV/EBITDA
FY13E  to arrive at a target price of | 128. We have assigned a  HOLD
rating to the stock.

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