14 August 2011

Hold NHPC; Target : Rs 28 ::ICICI Securities,

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O n e   o f f s   d r i v e   h i g h e r   p r o f i t s   …
Higher sales (due to higher other operating income and previous year
sales of | 275 crore) , grossing up of sales at MAT rate, higher employee
costs , lower depreciation and interest cost , were the key highlights of Q1
FY 12 NHPC results. While adjusted sales (| 1198 crore) were in line with
estimates, adjusted EBITDA (| 876  crore) was lower than estimates (on
account higher employee costs). Adjusted PAT came in |596 crore .
During the quarter the company generated 6284 MUs (+14%YoY, +233%
QoQ). Sales realisation per unit stood at | 2.6/kwhr (net unit sales taken at
88% of gross generation). Valuation at 1.1x FY13 P/B with capacity
addition of 515 MW  in FY12, 697 MW  in FY13 coupled with  least  fuel  risk
and lower leverage. Upgrade the stock from Hold to Buy with the target
price of |28. Delay in capacity addition (as happened in 2000 MW
Subanshri Lower and 800 MW Parbati) is the key risk for the stock.  
ƒ Other key highlights for the quarter
In Q1 FY12, out of operating income of |129 crore;|89 crore was on
account of interest on earlier tariff. Other expenditure (|316.5 crore)
included provision of |202 crore towards water cess in respect of
power stations situated in J&K. Total provisions made in this regard
stands at |341 crore . Other income (|237.9 crore) includes one time
income of |69 crore towards profit of a transfer of project.
Depreciation declined 13% on YoY basis due change in rate (5.2%
current v/s earlier rate of 10%). Interest cost declined 17% on YoY
basis on account of prepayment of high cost debt of Chamera
project.

V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of |25.2, the stock is trading at P/E of 13.8x and 11.2x on
FY12E and FY13E EPS, respectively. Similarly, on P/B multiple the stock is
trading at 1.1x and 1.1x FY13E, respectively. Upgrade the stock from hold
to Buy with target price of |28.

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