30 August 2011

Dividend screen for India:: CLSA

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Dividend screen
With markets down 23% ytd and earnings/dividends not downgraded as
much, the market dividend yield has moved up to 1.7% from the last 5
year average 1.2%. While this is still below-par in the regional context,
21 stocks out of the 130 we cover now offer a 3%+ dividend yield. Of
these, the ones that we like are J&K Bank, Ashok Leyland, ONGC, Oil India
and Sun TV. Tata Motors DVR also offers an attractive dividend yield of
5%.
Market dividend yield is now 1.7%
q Indian markets have never been known to offer high dividend yield given the high
growth / capex mode most of the companies have been. The low capex companies
with a high dividend payout are expensive (FMCG companies), depressing the yield.
q The recent market correction has pushed up the market (Nifty stocks) dividend
yield to 1.7% (FY12) from the last five year average of 1.2%.
q Compared to regional markets, its still significantly lower, but the only time in the
last five years, the dividend yield has been higher was during the GFC, when it had
nearly reached 2%. This is despite the fact that the average dividend payout has
been stable / marginally lower at 23% now.
21 stocks with 3%+ dividend yield
q Of the 130 stocks under coverage, 21 stocks now offer a 3%+ dividend yield. We
hold positive rec on 5 of these. 4 of those 5 have outperformed the markets ytd.
q Among these 21 stocks, 9 stocks have outperformed the market by 9-12% ytd and
the others have underperformed by 2-35% ytd.
The high dividend yield stocks that we like
q Within our coverage, 6 public sector banks offer a 3%+ dividend yield despite our
recent downgrade. Within those, we like J&K Bank.
q Of the 4 auto stocks with 3%+ div yield, we like Ashok Leyland. Tata Motors DVR
with a 5% div yield appears attractive. Tata Motors DVR currently trades at 42%
discount to the TTMT IN and carries slightly higher dividend of Rs0.5/share
q Of the 4 oil PSUs, we like ONGC and Oil India. Among the others, we like Sun TV.
We continue to hold a negative view on the highest dividend yield stocks under
coverage i.e. HCL Info as both its businesses Nokia distribution and computer
hardware appear unexciting.


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