21 August 2011

Buy Shree Renuka Sugar; Target : Rs 80::ICICI Securities

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S t r o n g   g l o b a l   p r i c e s   b o o s t   m a r g i n s …
Shree Renuka Sugars reported robust results for Q3SY11 as the topline
grew 21.7% QoQ to | 2240.1 crore on  the back of higher volumes from
both Indian and Brazilian operations. EBITDA margins improved from
15.1% to 19.3% led by higher realisations of sugar and ethanol in Brazil.
Depreciation provisioning increased ~60%  to | 179.1 crore due to
capacity addition in Brazil and commissioning of the Kandla refinery in
India. Interest cost declined 12.9%  to | 162.2 crore due to repayment of
working capital debt in India. Other income increased 39.6% to | 125.9
crore on the back of | 100 crore of forex gain in the Brazilian subsidiary
due to appreciation of the Brazilian  Real against the rupee. Net profit
increased 214.8% to | 187 crore on the back of higher EBITDA and other
income.
ƒ Operational details
The company sold 2,88,000 tonnes of sugar in India with average
realisations of | 29.9 per kg. Out of this, it has exported 1.95 lakh tonnes
with average realisations of | 33.2 per kg and 0.97 lakh  tonnes sold with
the average realisations of | 23.5 per kg. The company got the benefit of
prevailing higher global sugar prices. The company has sold 33,741
kilolitres (kl) ethanol with average realisations of | 26.5 per litre and 8.0
crore units in power with average tariff of | 6.37 per unit.
V a l u a t i o n
At the current price of | 62, the stock is trading at 6.1x its SY11E EPS of |
9.9 and 6.5x its SY12E EPS of | 9.3. The upsurge in global sugar prices,
lower sugarcane cost in India and exports allowance by government
would boost the earnings for the company in future. We expect the
government to further allow at least 0.5 million tonnes (MT) of exports,
which would improve the domestic sugar realisations for the company.
We believe strong cash flows generations would help in repayment of
debt, which would strengthen balance sheet, going forward. We value the
stock at 8x its SY12 EPS of | 9.9 to arrive at a target price of | 80.

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