09 August 2011

Buy Harrisons Malayalam; Target : Rs 87:: ICICI Securities

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M a r g i n s   r i s e   d e s p i t e  s u b d u e d   t o p l i n e …
Harrisons Malayalam’s (HML) Q1FY12 results were announced and it
posted better-than-expected margins and earnings growth with topline
growth remaining restrained. During the quarter, the company’s topline
grew by 11.7% to | 85.3 crore (I-direct estimate: | 93.8 crore) over | 76.3
crore in Q1FY11. Margins witnessed a significant increase from 0.2% in
Q1FY11 to 11.6% in QFY12 led by lower raw material cost to sales ratio of
19.8% AGAINST 27.2% in Q1FY11. The upsurge in margins helped the
company to post profit of | 3.5 crore against a loss of | 3.9 crore in the
corresponding quarter last year.
ƒ Operational details
HM’s tea sales for the quarter dipped significantly to | 23.4 crore against |
31.7 crore in Q1FY11. This was on account of ~38% dip in sales volume
from 4.5 million kg to 2.8 million kg. However, realisations were higher
~13% at | 79/kg compared to | 70/kg in Q1FY11. Though the sales
volumes were lower, higher realisation lowered the losses from tea to |
5.2 crore against | 6.6 crore in Q1FY11.
Revenues from rubber sales increased ~60% to | 54.3 crore from | 33.9
crore in Q1FY11. During the quarter, sales volume of rubber increased
~13% YoY to 2.0 million kg against 1.8 million kg in Q1FY11. Also,
realisations were higher ~34% to | 228/kg against | 170/kg in Q1FY11.
Hence, earnings from rubber jumped significantly by 179% to | 13.2 crore
from | 4.7 crore in Q1FY11.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 75, the stock is trading at 8.6x and 6.9x its FY12E and
FY13E EPS of | 8.7 and | 10.9, respectively. We believe that in the coming
quarters tea realisations and volumes would increase led by the shortfall
in production in Kenya (largest exporter). However, realisation from
rubber is expected to remain stable with volumes being higher. Hence,
we have valued the stock at 8x its FY13E EPS of | 10.9 assigning it a
target price of | 87 with a BUY rating.

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