17 August 2011

Buy Aban Offshore; Target : Rs 446 ::ICICI Securities,

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F l e e t   u t i l i s a t i o n   t o   i m p r o v e …
Aban Offshore (Aban) reported revenues and profitability which were
below our estimates.  Consolidated revenues for Q1FY12 were
significantly lower at | 731.3 crore compared to our estimate of | 856.7
crore. Revenues were lower on account of lower fleet utilisation as
Aban  III,  Aban  IV  and  Aban  V  were not operational during the quarter,
while Aban VII is under marketing.  Even Aban Abraham commenced its
5 year contract with Petrobas in Brazil in June 2011. Aban’s EBITDA
margin was lower at 62.7% as against our estimate of 66.1% on account
of higher employee cost, repairs and maintenance and insurance
charges. Of the idle assets during Q1FY12 Aban IV has already
commenced its new contract and Aban III would be going on contract
from October 2011. Aban currently has  16 assets on contracts and only
two are under marketing. Considering this, we have increased the fleet
utilisation for FY13E resulting in an upward revision in revenues by 5.1%.
We have also fine tuned our estimates to factor in the lower Ebitda
margin for FY12E and FY13E on account of higher expenses and lowered
our tax rate assumption for FY13E. Consequently we have revised
downward our EPS estimate for FY12E by 17% to | 115.2 and increased
the FY13E EPS estimate by 37% to | 81.2.
ƒ Fall in revenues impacts operating performance
Aban reported a 18.6%  QoQ decline in  revenues at | 731.3 crore in
Q1FY12. EBITDA Margin declined  by 340 bps on account of higher
insurance and staff expenses which increased by 200 bps and 270 bps
respectively. The decline in revenues and lower EBITDA margin resulted
in EBITDA declining by 23% to | 458.9 crore. Depreciation and interest
cost remained flattish and the company reported a decline of 41% in net
profit to | 88.6 crore.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 400, the stock is trading at 4.8x FY13E EPS of | 81.2 and
0.63x FY13E book value of | 638. We have valued the stock at 0.70x
FY13E book value to arrive at a price target of | 446 and recommend a
BUY rating. Existing investors can also continue to HOLD the stock.

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