27 August 2011

An AAA rating for the US isn’t likely soon, may be cut to AA from AA+ within two years: S&P in Economic Times

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Standard & Poor's said it was an "oversimplification" to blame its stripping the US of the top AAA sovereign rating for recent market volatility, adding that many investors agreed with its action. Markets were also responding to a weaker global growth outlook, David Beers, global head of sovereign and international public finance ratings at S&P , told reporters in Singapore today. 

The company is untroubled by dissenting views on its decision, he said in response to questions. His comments follow criticisms by investors including Warren Buffett, the world's most successful investor, who said that the US should be "quadruple-A " and the decision doesn't reflect any inability of the US to pay its debts. 

The market value of global stocks plunged by $2.5 trillion on the first trading day after S&P on Aug. 5 cut the US by one level to AA+, citing the political failure to reduce record deficits. "It's at the very least an oversimplification to say that all this is happening because of S&P's change of opinion," Beers said. Amid evidence of slowing world economy, "markets digesting all these news have concluded that the near-, perhaps medium-term, outlook for global growth has become less certain. This was all happening before the downgrade and has continued after some of the noise around the downgrade," Beers said. 

The Obama administration criticised the S&P move, with the Treasury Department telling the company it had overestimated future national debt by $2 trillion. S&P said the discrepancy didn't affect its decision, and based its conclusion on the US government becoming "less stable, less effective and less predictable." The US growth trajectory faces downside risks, and the medium-term fiscal adjustment in the world's biggest economy may be impacted by a slowdown, Beers said today. An AAA rating for the US isn't likely in the near term, he said. 

S&P kept the outlook on the US debt rating at "negative" on Aug. 5. The ranking may be cut to AA within two years if spending reductions are lower than agreed to, interest rates rise or "new fiscal pressures" result in higher general government debt, the New York-based firm said.

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