India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Weekly US oil data
Supply/Demand balance is “well short”
IEA warns that Opec output is currently “well short” of 3Q needs
Today‟s IEA monthly report followed last month‟s bullish report with one of a
similar tone: In contrast to yesterday‟s report from Opec predicting that global oil
demand growth will slow in 2012, the IEA sees demand increasing some +1.6%
over 2011 levels (vs. Macquarie forecast for +2.2% growth). Continued strength
in emerging economies (including a +5% increase in annual Chinese crude
demand) is set to outweigh weakness in developed countries. The IEA went on
to forecast that the effect of its recent strategic reserves release “will continue to
have a physical impact through July and August,” with market demand better
than expected for the additional supplies, and left the door open for further
releases if deemed necessary.
On the global supply front, the Opec release showed that perhaps the Saudis are
putting their oil where their mouth is in regards to production, after doing little to back
up their promises for price and supply stability in April and May. On the back of what
Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi called “one of the worst [Opec] meetings we‟ve ever
had”, where the cartel failed to agree on proposed quota increases, the kingdom
ramped up June production to 9.7mb/d, the highest since early 2006. Also notable
was that Iraqi production rose to 2.7mb/d, the highest since 2001, with increases
coming mostly from the Kurdish region.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories saw a healthy draw lower, -3.1mbs. Levels at
Cushing, OK grew by +0.6mbs.
Downstream stocks climb higher, +7.4mbs, with the most significant
increases coming from middle distillates (+3.0mbs) and „other‟ products
(+4.0mbs).
Demand growth remains negative at -1.5% (four week MA, y/y), with
weakness persisting in the „transport fuels‟ category.
No comments:
Post a Comment