02 July 2011

TVS Motor June 2011 volume: Scooters / mopeds drive growth: Standard Chartered Research,

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 Overall volume up 14% yoy to 182,455.
 Total 2W volume up 14% yoy to 178,633, driven by 21%
yoy growth in scooters and mopeds each; motorcycles
grew at a much slower 7% yoy.
 3W volume up 27% yoy to 3,822 units led by strong
export sales.  
 1Q FY12 volume up 16% yoy to 0.5m units.
 TVS Motor appears the most vulnerable to lose market
share in a rising competitive environment.
 Fully valued at 10.1x FY12E earnings and at 5x
EV/EBITDA. Maintain IN-LINE
Total volume up 14% yoy to 182,455 units: TVS Motor’s
June 2011 sales were up 14% yoy (down 2% m-o-m) at
182,455 units. While domestic sales were up 9% yoy to
156,096 units, exports grew 57% yoy to 26,359 units.  
Scooter / mopeds boost 2W growth: TVS Motor’s June
two-wheeler sales grew 14% yoy to 178,633 units driven by
strong growth in the scooters and the mopeds segments.
While scooter sales were up 20.5% yoy to 44,281 units,
mopeds grew 21% yoy to 64,493 units. Motorcycles,
however, grew at 4.8% yoy to 69,589 units.      
3W sales up 27% yoy: Three-wheeler volume grew 27%
yoy in June to 3,822 units. Growth was driven primarily by a
strong export off-take – exports tripled yoy to 3,022 units.
Domestic 3W sales declined 60% yoy in June to 800 units.
Exports momentum continues: TVS Motor’s total exports
in June grew 57% yoy to 26,359 units. While two-wheeler
exports were up 39% yoy to 23,337 units, 3W exports tripled
to 3,022 units.
1Q FY12 sales up 16% yoy: TVS Motor posted strong 16%
yoy volume growth in 1Q FY12 driven primarily by strong
sales of scooters (up 23% yoy), mopeds (up 20% yoy) and
3Ws (up 47% yoy). Motorcycles sales grew at 7% yoy.
Valuation: Given rising competitive intensity and lack of
new launches for most of FY12E, we believe TVS appears
to be the most vulnerable among the top three 2W players
in India. The stock appears fully valued at 10.1xFY12E
earnings and at 5x EV/EBITDA.

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