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Petronet LNG Ltd
Volume & regas charge jump
drive strong 1Q; raise PO
„1Q profit up 130% YoY and 24% QoQ; Raise EPS & PO
1Q FY12 profit for Petronet LNG (PLNG) was up 130% YoY and 24% QoQ driven
by the jump in volumes and regas charge. 1Q FY12 profit was 24% higher than
our estimate and 29% higher than consensus. Dahej terminal utilization rate,
which touched 100% for the first time in 4Q FY11, increased to 107% in 1Q FY12.
Regas charge was also up sharply YoY and QoQ. We raise PLNG’s FY12-13
EPS estimates by 4-13% and PO by 14% to Rs116.8/share. Our revised PO still
implies 24% potential downside. Profit is also likely to remain sequentially flat for
another six quarters. We retain our Underperform rating on PLNG.
1Q profit surge on volume jump & regas charge rise
The jump in PLNG’s 1Q net profit to Rs2.6bn was driven by a 40% YoY rise in
regas volumes and 19% YoY rise in regas charge. Regas volumes at 133tbtu
(2.7mmt) imply a utilization rate of 107% on capacity of 10mmtpa. The utilization
level was 76% in 1Q FY11. Utilization ramped up to reach 96% in 3Q and 100%
in 4Q as RIL’s KG D6 gas output fell and new demand emerged. 1Q FY12 profit
rose 24% QoQ as volumes were up 7% QoQ and regas charge up 12% QoQ.
Raise FY12-13E EPS by 4-13% and PO by 14% to 116.8/share
We have raised PLNG’s FY12E EPS by 13% due to upgrades in regas volume
and charge to reflect the surprise in 1Q. FY13 EPS is also increased by 4%. We
have also raised PLNG’s PO by 14% from Rs102/share earlier to Rs116.8/share.
The upgrade to our PO is mainly due to assuming peak Kochi terminal volume at
5mmt (from FY18) from 2.5mmt earlier. The Kochi terminal is set to start imports
from FY14. PLNG has a long term contract to import 1.5mmtpa of LNG at Kochi
from the Gorgon project in Australia but supply will start in FY16. Until FY15 LNG
imports would be either spot or under short term contracts. We have assumed
Kochi volumes at 1mmt in FY14, 2.5mmt in FY15-17 and 5mmt from FY18.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Petronet LNG Ltd
Volume & regas charge jump
drive strong 1Q; raise PO
„1Q profit up 130% YoY and 24% QoQ; Raise EPS & PO
1Q FY12 profit for Petronet LNG (PLNG) was up 130% YoY and 24% QoQ driven
by the jump in volumes and regas charge. 1Q FY12 profit was 24% higher than
our estimate and 29% higher than consensus. Dahej terminal utilization rate,
which touched 100% for the first time in 4Q FY11, increased to 107% in 1Q FY12.
Regas charge was also up sharply YoY and QoQ. We raise PLNG’s FY12-13
EPS estimates by 4-13% and PO by 14% to Rs116.8/share. Our revised PO still
implies 24% potential downside. Profit is also likely to remain sequentially flat for
another six quarters. We retain our Underperform rating on PLNG.
1Q profit surge on volume jump & regas charge rise
The jump in PLNG’s 1Q net profit to Rs2.6bn was driven by a 40% YoY rise in
regas volumes and 19% YoY rise in regas charge. Regas volumes at 133tbtu
(2.7mmt) imply a utilization rate of 107% on capacity of 10mmtpa. The utilization
level was 76% in 1Q FY11. Utilization ramped up to reach 96% in 3Q and 100%
in 4Q as RIL’s KG D6 gas output fell and new demand emerged. 1Q FY12 profit
rose 24% QoQ as volumes were up 7% QoQ and regas charge up 12% QoQ.
Raise FY12-13E EPS by 4-13% and PO by 14% to 116.8/share
We have raised PLNG’s FY12E EPS by 13% due to upgrades in regas volume
and charge to reflect the surprise in 1Q. FY13 EPS is also increased by 4%. We
have also raised PLNG’s PO by 14% from Rs102/share earlier to Rs116.8/share.
The upgrade to our PO is mainly due to assuming peak Kochi terminal volume at
5mmt (from FY18) from 2.5mmt earlier. The Kochi terminal is set to start imports
from FY14. PLNG has a long term contract to import 1.5mmtpa of LNG at Kochi
from the Gorgon project in Australia but supply will start in FY16. Until FY15 LNG
imports would be either spot or under short term contracts. We have assumed
Kochi volumes at 1mmt in FY14, 2.5mmt in FY15-17 and 5mmt from FY18.
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