19 July 2011

Perplexity continues to prevail ::Emkay

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Perplexity continues to prevail


View: Perplexity continues to prevail over the direction of the index. F&O indicators suggest a cautious view while continued buying from FIIs in the cash segment favors bulls.  The Nifty has a strong support placed at around the 5580-5630 levels. A close below 5580 levels might indicate a reversal to the current rally.
The Nifty witnessed strong resistance at its 200-day moving average placed at around the 5740 levels. Selling pressure prevailed for most part of the session, forcing the index to close in the red. NSE cash volumes stood at Rs122.69 billion as against Rs120.23 billion seen in the penultimate session.

Nifty July futures witnessed closure of 0.14 million shares in open interest to 22.45 million shares from 22.59 million shares. Interestingly, open interest in FIIs index futures segment increased marginally to 0.45 million contracts from 0.44 million contracts. FIIs remained net sellers to the tune of Rs5620 million suggesting build up of short positions.

The Nifty put-call of open interest declined to 1.25 levels last Friday, reversing from 1.34 levels. Historically since January, 2011, reversals in the ratio are seen from levels of 1.35 -1.40 followed by a decline in the index. The ratio has a direct correlation with the index. Any further decline in the ratio will indicate weakness creeping into the trades. 

FIIs continued to buy in the cash segment. A massive inflow of Rs57.54 billion has been observed in the current month. Inflows from mutual funds stand at Rs2.52 billion.

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