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May 2011 - GSM net subscriber addition
Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) reported GSM subscriber data for May
2011, which continued its declining trend in this month as well. It was the lowest since last
one and half year and weak across all operators (except Bharti and Vodafone). The net
subscriber addition number stood at 9.5mn, down 14.2% mom, taking the total GSM
subscriber base to 590.2mn.
In May 2011, net addition run rate mom for all operators dropped off steeply (Refer
Exhibit: 7). Among the incumbents, BSNL reported the highest drop off in net additions to
merely 0.5mn, down 31.6% mom, which led to a 20bp mom decline in its subscriber
market share to 14.8%. Idea, which was adding more than 2.5mn subscribers since last six
months, posted steep 26.5% mom decline in its net subscriber addition to merely 1.8mn in
May 2011. On the other hand, Bharti and Vodafone maintained their net subscriber
addition number by adding 2.5mn and 2.4mn subscribers, an increase of 1.7% and 1.6%
mom, respectively. Net subscriber addition of Aircel was flat at 1.1mn, up 0.4% mom.
Subscriber market share of Bharti and Vodafone was maintained mom at 28.3% and
23.6%, respectively; however, Aircel’s market share inched up by 10bp to 9.7%.
All the new operators reported sharp decline in subscriber net addition numbers for May
2011. Uninor, which emerged as a dark horse in April 2011, posted 21.2% mom decline
in its net subscriber addition by adding only 1.1mn subscribers, which led to 110bp mom
decline in its subscriber markets share to 12.0%. Operators like DB Etisalat, Loop Mobile
and S Tel reported 60.3%, 29.4% and 9.1% mom decline in their net subscriber addition
numbers to 0.1mn, 0.01mn and 0.2mn, respectively. Videocon posted net reduction in its
subscriber base by 0.2mn.
For Bharti and Idea, this kind of cooling off in subscriber net addition was along expected
lines, thus our estimates remain unchanged. We maintain Bharti as our preferred pick in
the telecom sector with an Accumulate rating and a target price of `398, valuing it at
EV/EBITDA of 7x FY2013E EBITDA.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
May 2011 - GSM net subscriber addition
Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) reported GSM subscriber data for May
2011, which continued its declining trend in this month as well. It was the lowest since last
one and half year and weak across all operators (except Bharti and Vodafone). The net
subscriber addition number stood at 9.5mn, down 14.2% mom, taking the total GSM
subscriber base to 590.2mn.
In May 2011, net addition run rate mom for all operators dropped off steeply (Refer
Exhibit: 7). Among the incumbents, BSNL reported the highest drop off in net additions to
merely 0.5mn, down 31.6% mom, which led to a 20bp mom decline in its subscriber
market share to 14.8%. Idea, which was adding more than 2.5mn subscribers since last six
months, posted steep 26.5% mom decline in its net subscriber addition to merely 1.8mn in
May 2011. On the other hand, Bharti and Vodafone maintained their net subscriber
addition number by adding 2.5mn and 2.4mn subscribers, an increase of 1.7% and 1.6%
mom, respectively. Net subscriber addition of Aircel was flat at 1.1mn, up 0.4% mom.
Subscriber market share of Bharti and Vodafone was maintained mom at 28.3% and
23.6%, respectively; however, Aircel’s market share inched up by 10bp to 9.7%.
All the new operators reported sharp decline in subscriber net addition numbers for May
2011. Uninor, which emerged as a dark horse in April 2011, posted 21.2% mom decline
in its net subscriber addition by adding only 1.1mn subscribers, which led to 110bp mom
decline in its subscriber markets share to 12.0%. Operators like DB Etisalat, Loop Mobile
and S Tel reported 60.3%, 29.4% and 9.1% mom decline in their net subscriber addition
numbers to 0.1mn, 0.01mn and 0.2mn, respectively. Videocon posted net reduction in its
subscriber base by 0.2mn.
For Bharti and Idea, this kind of cooling off in subscriber net addition was along expected
lines, thus our estimates remain unchanged. We maintain Bharti as our preferred pick in
the telecom sector with an Accumulate rating and a target price of `398, valuing it at
EV/EBITDA of 7x FY2013E EBITDA.
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