21 June 2011

Macquarie Research, Zinc market better balanced than suggested by latest industry data

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Zinc market better balanced than
suggested by latest industry data
Feature article
 The International Lead Zinc Study Group’s latest report suggests world
markets for refined zinc and lead have been in surplus this year to date.
We think the zinc market is in fact fundamentally better balanced than this
but the lead market does seem to have hit a soft spot.
Latest news
 All LME base metals prices finished lower in trading on Thursday as macro
worries continued to weigh on market sentiment, most notably the creaking
Greek economy.  The nickel price recorded the steepest fall on the day (-2%)
as the market moves towards surplus, while the copper price once more
outperformed on a relative basis.
 In the US, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic
index fell to minus 7.7 in June, its lowest reading for two years (readings
below zero signal contraction).  This follows a similar negative reading for the
New York region earlier in the week and adds to worries that growth in the US
economy is stalling.  This suggests that the ISM index could be very weak,
which could be a significant negative to already fragile market sentiment.
 Coal prices at QHD rose a further Rmb5/t for 5,500kcal/kg coal, to reach
Rmb845/t.  Momentum in domestic coal pricing has slowed and leading
indicators such as coastal freight have remained stagnant lately, with the
QHD to Guangzhou pricing at Rmb62/t.  The continued rain is likely to
alleviate the pressure from very weak hydro generation, although it is unlikely
to significantly undermine pricing.
 At the second day of the Metal Bulletin Iron Ore Symposium in Geneva,
Henriette van Niekirk from Clarksons noted that delivery delays continue in
the dry bulk freight order book, with a slippage rate of 43% in Q1 2011.
Meanwhile, Clarksons believes that 75 Capesize vessels may be scrapped
over the course of the 2011 - a new record. However, all panellists agreed
the vast oversupply would weigh on the bulk freight market for at least the
next two years.
 ArcelorMittal Mining has reiterated that it remains on track to commence
exports from its Mt Nimba operation in Liberia during July. The project plans
to produce 1mt of 60%Fe sinter feed in 2011, increasing to 4mtpa in 2012. If
realised, this will make ArcelorMittal the first to bring material to market from
the new West Africa iron ore developments.
 Emmanuel Mutati, the chief executive of Mopani Copper Mines (a Zambian
subsidiary of commodity trader Glencore), said "the auditors failed to
understand the process of mining. Fifty percent of the copper that we process
comes from other companies." "The auditors took the total volume of the
refinery and attributed it to Mopani." he said. Zambia will audit more miners
after previous audits turned up as much as $200 million in unpaid taxes from
the vital economic sector, the country's mines minister told Reuters on
Wednesday

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