Macquarie Research, Weekly Fund Flow Tracker - Mood swings

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Weekly Fund Flow Tracker
Mood swings
Local exchange data: NE Asia drives net-selling
 Continued lack of strong trend. The week ending Wednesday, June 15,
marked another week of foreign net-selling (-US$2.3bn, vs. last week’s -
US$198m) for the aggregate of the six Asia ex-Japan markets where data is
available (i.e. Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines).
This was driven by: 1) net-selling of -US$1.1bn in Taiwan – largest outflows
since the week of the Miyagi earthquake in March, and 2) -US$882m in
Korea, reversing a two-week revival of net-buying that totalled US$1.2bn.
Consequently, Asia ex-Japan YTD cumulative net-buying has come down to
(still-positive) US$835m from its peak of US$7.9bn in early May.
 Still signs of opportunism in TIPs. Indonesia recorded weekly foreign netbuying of US$160mn – highest since the first week of May. Net-selling in
Thailand eased to US$194m from US$469m last week, with increasing netinflows on daily basis during the week. Net-buying in Philippines remained
positive but decreased to a trickle, at US$1.5m, vs. US$5m the week before.
Separately, net-selling in India dipped back into negative (-US$202m)
following a two-week rebound of net-buying totalling US$892m.
 Shift to net-selling in Japan. Japan’s foreign buying data comes with a oneweek lag. For the week ending June 10, Japan suffered net-selling of -
US$498m, reversing the previous week’s net-positive foreign buying of
US$920m -- consistent with the broad Asia ex-Japan trend last week.
 Net-buying in frontier markets a wash. The aggregate foreign net-buying of
the three frontier markets where high frequency data is available (i.e.
Vietnam, Pakistan and Sri-Lanka) decreased to a negligible US$0.5m from
US$10.6m the week before. This was driven by decreased net-buying to
US$1.5m and -US$4m in Vietnam and Pakistan, respectively (from US$8m
and US$3.7m), but was offset by an increase in net-buying in Sri-Lanka to
US$3m from net-selling of -US$1m last week.
Fund Subscription data: Neither GEMs nor Asia-Pac EMs
 GEM funds net-redemptions increased WoW. Weekly net-redemptions at
the Global Emerging Markets funds intensified to -US$691m, versus -
US$272m last week and YTD weekly average of -US$163.5m.
 Emerging Asia: decreasing net-redemptions overall, rebound in
Singapore and Taiwan. Weekly subscriptions to the aggregate of Asia exJapan equity products are back in the red, following three consecutive weeks
of net-positive subscriptions. Eight out of twelve Asia ex-Japan countryfocused fund groups received decreased net-subscriptions/increased netredemptions WoW, with notable exceptions of Taiwan-, Greater-China-, and
Singapore focused funds (which saw positive increases). In fact, weekly netsubscriptions to Singapore funds hit a 30-week high.
 Developed Asia: accelerating net-redemptions overall. Weekly netredemptions at Japan-focused funds and Asia Pacific Funds (which combine
Australia and New Zealand with Japan and emerging Asia) intensified to -
US$203m and -US$196m, respectively, versus -US$10m and -US$108m the
week before.