13 June 2011

Macquarie Research, Weekly Fund Flow- Tracker Selective opportunism

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Weekly Fund Flow Tracker
Selective opportunism
Local exchange data: selling Thailand, buying Korea
􀂃 Foreign net-selling driven primarily by Thailand and Indonesia. For the
week ending Wednesday, 8 June, foreign net-selling dipped back into negative
(-US$198m) for the aggregate of the six Asia ex-Japan markets where data is
available (ie, Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines),
following a strong rebound to US$2.6bn in the week before. This is primarily
driven by the net-selling of -US$469m in Thailand and -US$77m in Indonesia.
The former marks the fourth week of consecutive net-outflows totalling
US$1bn, amid investor uncertainties surrounding the upcoming election.
􀂃 Buying in Korea, India and Philippines stayed positive. Meanwhile,
though, both Korea and India recorded net-positive foreign buying (US$257m
and US$106m, respectively), albeit easing off last week’s strong rebound to
US$926m and US$786m. Taiwan’s market closed for two days during the
week, leaving it in mild net-selling territory at -US$21m after net-buying of
US$850m the week before. The Philippines bucked the trend by recording
increased WoW foreign buying to US$4.8m, from net-selling of -US$1m.
􀂃 Japan’s foreign net-buying rebounded. Japan’s foreign buying data comes
with a one-week lag. For the week ending 3 June, foreign net-buying stood at
US$921m – a strong rebound from the previous week’s net-selling of
-US$88m, consistent with the broad Asia ex-Japan trend.
􀂃 Frontier markets suggest recovering risk appetite. Foreign net-buying in
Vietnam and Pakistan increased to US$8m and US$7m, respectively, from
US$1m and US$2m the week before, while net-selling in Sri-Lanka eased to
-US$1m from -US$2m.
Fund subscription data: GEMs slip but Asian EMs hold up
􀂃 GEM funds subscriptions from black to red. Following a week of recovery,
Global Emerging Markets funds received net-redemptions of -US$271.6m.
The degree of fluctuation in weekly GEM fund subscriptions since the start of
May suggests the absence of a strong trend in risk appetite, but rather a
shorter-term focus on fluctuating newsflow.
􀂃 Emerging Asia: subscriptions moderated WoW, still net-positive. Weekly
subscriptions to the aggregate of Asia ex-Japan equity products in particular
stayed positive, but moderated to US$178m from US$286m the previous
week. Subscriptions to pan-Asia ex-Japan regional funds picked up to US$90m,
above the 52-week average of US$79m. Malaysia funds received their
highest level of weekly net-subscriptions since September 2010 (at US$60m).
Hong Kong-focused funds have now received 10 weeks of consecutive netpositive
subscriptions. On the other hand, India-focused funds continue to
receive net-redemptions for a sixth consecutive week (at -US$51m).
􀂃 Developed Asia: continued outflows at Japan and Pacific funds. Weekly
net-redemptions at Japan-focused funds continued for a fifth consecutive
week, albeit easing to just -US$10m. But redemptions at the Asia-Pacific
Funds (which combine Australia and New Zealand with Japan and emerging
Asia) intensified to -US$108m from -US$32m the week before.

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