Macquarie Research, Unconventional Wisdom- The notable exception is the US

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Unconventional Wisdom
The notable exception is the US
Event
 OECD leading indicators for April were released.
Impact
 The OECD’s assessment of its leading indicators is a mild loss of growth
momentum.
 There is, however, one important exception to the slowdown story, which may
surprise financial markets – the US.
 If the leading indicators are right, then the focus on the US as the likely source
of a global economic slowdown is not even close to the mark.
Analysis
 “Composite leading indicators (CLIs) designed to anticipate turning points in
economic activity relative to trend point to a mild loss of growth momentum in
most major economies for April 2011.”
 This was the assessment of the OECD when it released its leading indicator
data this week. So far there are no confirmed turning points in the leading
indicators for any of the major economies. The turning points highlighted by
the OECD are only provisional and subject to revision over coming months.
 If the leading indicators are accurate and do anticipate economic activity by
six months, then the slowdown will be most apparent in some emerging
economies. For Brazil and India, the OECD views their leading indicators as
indicating a “slowdown”. 100 represents the long-term trend of economic
activity and the arrows represent turning points.