19 June 2011

Macquarie Research, The good oil in India

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The good oil in India
Jal Irani makes a great case for investing in two of India’s leading oil marketing
stocks, Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL IN) and Bharat Petroleum (BPCL IN).
Jal says the two companies are transforming from petroleum product retailers
into energy conglomerates.  Each one plans to spend US$10 billion over the
next 5 to 6 years in upstream, refining and pipelines, and this diminishes the
subsidy-ridden retailing business to less than 5%. Expected new refinery starts
ups are also expected to add as much as 20% to 30% to earnings, and Jal
believes the market is oblivious to these impending gains.
In his view, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum are so cheap you get
the growth for free, especially with Hindustan. With forecast 12 month
shareholder returns of 41% for Hindustan and 30% for Bharat, both stocks also
look like attractive safe havens in a tough market.  >> Read Report
Sticking to India, Unmesh Sharma says home buyers in Mumbai are doing it
tough.  To get to an area where prices are US$200 a square foot, you need to
travel 2 hours from the CBD.  Unmesh does not think the current situation is
sustainable, and he would stick to developers willing to cut prices to drive asset
turnover and generate free cash flow. In Mumbai, he therefore has an
Outperform on Housing Development and Infrastructure (HDIL IN), and an
Underperform on Indiabulls Real Estate (IBREL IN).  >> Read Report

Highlights
 Benjie Creelan-Sandford has an Underperform on Banco Santander (SAN
SM), noting its capital position does not look bullet-proof.
 Despite recent falls, Craig Collie thinks CSL (CSL AU) still looks expensive
on a 2011e PER of more than 18 times earnings.
 William Howlett says the earnings risks for Europe’s diversified financial
sector are to the downside, but Neil Welch says Man Group (EMG LN) is a
more defensive option in the sector.
 Matthew Smith thinks Singapore banks offer defensiveness in an uncertain
world given their high solvency ratios in liquidity positions.

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