Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
US market – The key growth driver: Lupin greatly benefits from
the high-margin branded generic business, which differentiates
it in the Indian pharma space. The company has further
cemented its position in the segment by acquiring rights for Antara
product. Lupin has an approximate sales force of 160
personnel in the US. Lupin reported sales of US$131mn in
FY2011 in the US market.
On the generic turf, Lupin is currently the fifth largest generic
player in the US in terms of prescriptions, with 14 out of 30
generic products ranking No.1 and 27 out of its 30 products in
the top three by market share.
As of FY2011, the cumulative filings stand at 148, of which 48
have been approved. Lupin plans to launch 10 products in the
US in FY2012 and another 80 products over the next three years.
The company plans to file over 30 ANDAs in the US market in
FY2012. The company has 60 Para IVs, of which 15 are FTFs
(Lupin is the exclusive holder in three of them: Glumetza, Fortamet
and Cipro DS), addressing a market size of US$8bn. Overall,
we expect the US market to post a CAGR of 28.8% over
FY2011–13E.
Opportunity in the OC segment: In the oral contraceptive (OC)
segment, Lupin has filed 22 ANDAs and expects to get
approvals from 2HFY2012. As per management, the OC
segment is expected to contribute US$100mn to the company’s
top line over the next 2–3 years.
First-mover advantage in Japan: With Kyowa’s acquisition in
FY2008, Lupin figures among the few Indian companies with a
formidable presence in the world’s second largest pharma
market. The Japanese government has introduced a new policy
and regulatory reforms to increase the contribution of generic
drugs from a relatively low 17% in CY2007 to 30% of prescriptions
by CY2012. This is estimated to open a US$10bn opportunity
for global generic players such as Lupin. We expect Lupin to
post an 18.8% CAGR over FY2011–13E in the Japanese market,
and the region is likely to contribute 11.3% of Lupin’s
FY2012E total sales.
Domestic formulation segment continues to be strong: Lupin
continues to make strides in the Indian market. Currently, Lupin
ranks No.5, climbing up from being No.11 six years ago. Lupin
has been the fastest growing company among the top-5
companies in the domestic formulation space, registering a strong
CAGR of 20% over the last three years. Six of Lupin’s products
are among the top-300 brands in the country. Lupin introduced
41 new products in the Indian market in FY2011 and has a
strong field force of 3,800 MRs. For FY2012, management has
indicated ~20% growth in the domestic market due to increased
focus on chronic therapeutic segments such as oncology, asthma
and dermatology.
With respect to new growth avenues, Lupin has entered into the
biosimilar space with five products approved so far. Going ahead,
management plans to increase its focus on the same.
Outlook and valuation: Management has given a revenue
guidance of US$3bn by FY2013-14. We expect Lupin’s net sales
to grow at a 20.4% CAGR to `8,272cr and earnings to grow at
a 24.0% CAGR to `29.7/share over FY2011–13E. Currently,
the stock is trading at 20.0x and 15.1x FY2012E and FY2013E
earnings, respectively.
Based on the above mentioned triggers, we maintain our
positive outlook on the company and recommend a Buy rating
on the stock with a target price of `593.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
US market – The key growth driver: Lupin greatly benefits from
the high-margin branded generic business, which differentiates
it in the Indian pharma space. The company has further
cemented its position in the segment by acquiring rights for Antara
product. Lupin has an approximate sales force of 160
personnel in the US. Lupin reported sales of US$131mn in
FY2011 in the US market.
On the generic turf, Lupin is currently the fifth largest generic
player in the US in terms of prescriptions, with 14 out of 30
generic products ranking No.1 and 27 out of its 30 products in
the top three by market share.
As of FY2011, the cumulative filings stand at 148, of which 48
have been approved. Lupin plans to launch 10 products in the
US in FY2012 and another 80 products over the next three years.
The company plans to file over 30 ANDAs in the US market in
FY2012. The company has 60 Para IVs, of which 15 are FTFs
(Lupin is the exclusive holder in three of them: Glumetza, Fortamet
and Cipro DS), addressing a market size of US$8bn. Overall,
we expect the US market to post a CAGR of 28.8% over
FY2011–13E.
Opportunity in the OC segment: In the oral contraceptive (OC)
segment, Lupin has filed 22 ANDAs and expects to get
approvals from 2HFY2012. As per management, the OC
segment is expected to contribute US$100mn to the company’s
top line over the next 2–3 years.
First-mover advantage in Japan: With Kyowa’s acquisition in
FY2008, Lupin figures among the few Indian companies with a
formidable presence in the world’s second largest pharma
market. The Japanese government has introduced a new policy
and regulatory reforms to increase the contribution of generic
drugs from a relatively low 17% in CY2007 to 30% of prescriptions
by CY2012. This is estimated to open a US$10bn opportunity
for global generic players such as Lupin. We expect Lupin to
post an 18.8% CAGR over FY2011–13E in the Japanese market,
and the region is likely to contribute 11.3% of Lupin’s
FY2012E total sales.
Domestic formulation segment continues to be strong: Lupin
continues to make strides in the Indian market. Currently, Lupin
ranks No.5, climbing up from being No.11 six years ago. Lupin
has been the fastest growing company among the top-5
companies in the domestic formulation space, registering a strong
CAGR of 20% over the last three years. Six of Lupin’s products
are among the top-300 brands in the country. Lupin introduced
41 new products in the Indian market in FY2011 and has a
strong field force of 3,800 MRs. For FY2012, management has
indicated ~20% growth in the domestic market due to increased
focus on chronic therapeutic segments such as oncology, asthma
and dermatology.
With respect to new growth avenues, Lupin has entered into the
biosimilar space with five products approved so far. Going ahead,
management plans to increase its focus on the same.
Outlook and valuation: Management has given a revenue
guidance of US$3bn by FY2013-14. We expect Lupin’s net sales
to grow at a 20.4% CAGR to `8,272cr and earnings to grow at
a 24.0% CAGR to `29.7/share over FY2011–13E. Currently,
the stock is trading at 20.0x and 15.1x FY2012E and FY2013E
earnings, respectively.
Based on the above mentioned triggers, we maintain our
positive outlook on the company and recommend a Buy rating
on the stock with a target price of `593.
No comments:
Post a Comment