28 June 2011

India Weekly Kickstart Portfolio Strategy :Goldman Sachs: June 27th week

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India Weekly Kickstart
Portfolio Strategy Research
NIFTY gains 2% wow after commodities decline sharply on IEA’s move to release more oil
 Most sectors ended in positive territory with Banks (+2.4%) and Info. Tech. (+2.2%) outperforming wow.
 Foreign outflows totaled US$ 453 mn wow and domestic inflows were US$ 380 mn, as of the close of June 22, 2011.
 Natural Gas (-5.4%) slid sharply to drag commodities lower (-1.1%) wow. Agri commodities gained 1% wow.
 Asian markets recovered (+2.5% wow) after two continuous weeks of sharp declines.
Overview
Banks (+2.4%) and Info. Tech. (+2.2%) led a sharp
recovery in Indian equities last week. NIFTY
gained 2% wow despite a sharp sell-off on
Monday on news that a double tax avoidance
treaty with Mauritius was being reworked. Stocks
staged a handsome rebound towards the end of
the week after commodities slid on the IEA’s
announcement that it would release more crude
oil to the market. Reports from Europe suggesting
Greece had reached an austerity plan also helped
equities in Asia end in the green.
NIFTY price performance
NIFTY rebounded 2% last week & has lost 10.8% ytd
Source: NSE, DataStream, GS Global ECS Research.
Foreign and domestic flows
FIIs have sold US$ 630mn ytd, while DIIs bought
US$ 3.8bn ytd as of the close of June 22, 2011.
Earnings sentiment and relative valuation
MSCI India Info. Tech. & Financials saw the
weakest EPS sentiment wow. MSCI India is
currently trading at 14.1X forward earnings.
Commodities
Energy (-4.4%) dragged MCX Commodities (-1.1%)
lower wow. Agricultural commodities such as
Guar Seeds (+6.2%), Chana (+3.5%) and Sugar
(+2.9%) outperformed wow.
Macro events
Trade (July 1), PMI (July 1), BoP (June 30)
Focus
Monsoon Monitor

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