28 June 2011

India SMID: Taking Stock Babies still in the bath, stick with fundamentals over short term stock performance:: JPMorgan

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 Taking  Stock  of  India  SMID  coverage:  We  revisit  our  India  SMID
universe  following  the  recent  market  correction  and  as  we  field  rising
queries  from  investors  seeking  ‘SMID  babies  thrown  out  with  the
bathwater’. Our preferred stocks in our universe do not qualify, as most
of them  have  outperformed in the  r ecent market correction. Having said
that,  we  are  also  not  seeking  stock  under-performance  as  primary
selection  criteria  – stick  with  the  winners.  Despite  the  recent
outperformance,  we  continue  with  our  top  Indian  SMID  picks  – Dish
TV, Havells and Sintex.
 Investor  meeting  takeaways  – ‘it’s  not  just  about  growth’:  We
recently  met  60+ investors  based in Europe  and the  US. We  saw  good
interest in  Indian SMID companies  (mainly DISH TV, Havells, Sintex,
Apollo Hospitals  and  Jain  Irrigation  from  our  universe). Most investors
we met focused on balance sheet quality, cash flow profile and corporate
governance and bias seems high towards ‘businesses offering quality and
sustainability’ even  at  the  cost  of a  ‘relatively  lower  growth  profile.’
Esoteric valuation methods (SOTP etc.) did not find favor with investors
we met, nor did top down or 'concept' stock ideas
 Stock  performance divergence  to intensify:  We  advocate  bottom  up
stock  picking  for  Indian  SMID  stocks.  We  believe  that  broad  based
outperformance for Indian SMID stocks seems unlikely in the event of a
market rally, nor do we expect blanket collapse in course of sharp market
correction.  We  are  already  seeing  increasing  divergence  in  stock
performance  in  the  SMID  space,  and  we  expect  this  to  intensify  as
investor focus increasingly shifts towards quality.
 Our  top  picks: We  maintain DISH TV, Havells  and  Sintex  as  our top
picks. We see a near term  trading opportunity in Jet Airways – the stock
is  not  discounting  recent  oil  price  correction  and  fare  hikes  affected  in
May  and  we  expect  Apr-Jun  Q  results  to  surprise  positively.   We  are
seeing  increasing  interest  in  Jain  Irrigation  (our  top  Underweight  call)
post the  sharp  correction. We  would look to  become  more  constructive
on  the  stock  in  the  event  of  a  shift  in  management  strategy  geared
towards better balance sheet management and capital allocation.

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