18 June 2011

ICICI Securities, Shipping Monthly Report – June 2011

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S h i p p i n g   M o n t h l y   R e p o r t   –   J u n e   2 0 1 1
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 17% to 1480 in May 2011 due to
a 26% rise in the Panamax index and a 20% rise in the capesize.
Freight rates improved in May for Capesize and Panamax tonnage.
Healthy activity in the iron ore  and coal sectors and increasing
export of South American grain and soybean were the main
factors for increasing tonnage demand
• The Dirty Tanker Index declined  by 8% to 761 while the Clean
Tanker Index declined by 20% to 716 level in May 2011. Though
VLCC showed some positive momentum, a crash in Suezmax
freight rates impacted the demand for VLCCs
• LPG freight rates across all categories remained range bound with
a negative bias in May 2011
• Utilisation levels for drill ships,  semi-subs and jack-up rigs were
reported at 79%, 86% and 80% in May 2011 as against 77%, 84%
and 80% in April 2011, respectively. Utilisation levels showed
signs of improvement but did not translate into a significant rise in
charter rates
Outlook
Dry bulkers
Dry bulk freight rates are expected to remain subdued in June on the back
of the upcoming Indian monsoon, which will most likely reduce iron ore
exports from India. Also, China could be importing lower volumes of iron
ore due to current high level of inventories. China’s iron ore inventory
level is at an all-time high of 92.6 million tonnes (MT) and steel production
in China is expected to remain slow on account of restriction of electricity
allocation to steel plants. On the positive side, from a medium-term
perspective, China’s thermal coal fixtures are likely to remain firm while
the lifting of the Russian wheat export ban and the forthcoming recovery
of Australian coal mines could lend support to dry bulk freight rates.
Tankers
Crude oil tanker freight rates are expected to remain subdued owing to
the oversupply of tonnage, which would handicap the market. Even if
some demand emerges in the near term, the tonnage available is likely to
weigh on the charter rates and keep them subdued. Some positive
momentum is likely for VLCCs while Suezmax is likely to remain subdued.
 
LPG carriers
LPG freight rates are expected to remain weak in June 2011 due to
availability of excess tonnage.
Offshore vessels
Utilisation levels for offshore vessels are expected to rise while charter
rates are expected to remain stable in June 2011. High capex spend by
major global oil exploration/drilling companies is likely to lead to higher
utilisation levels for offshore vessels

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