06 June 2011

Goldman Sachs:: NIFTY snaps four week losing streak to gain almost 1% wow despite softening activity

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Most sectors ended in the green wow led by CNXFMCG Index (+3%) and CNXINFR Index (+2.8%)  
 June 01, 2011. as of the close of nd domestic outflows of US$ 40 mn seen,  Strong foreign inflows of US$ 788 mn a 
7.8% yoy vs. consensus expectations of 8.1% yoy. Q1 GDP growth came in worse than expected at  
4QFY11 earnings continue to be weak with 42% of CNX500 companies reporting below expectations  
Overview
Indian equity markets ended up 0.7% wow in a week
that witnessed disappointing macro data releases.
Jan-Mar real GDP growth came in at 7.8% vs. the
revised 8.3% yoy (from 8.2%) growth in Oct-Dec 2010,
confirming weakening activity. For FY11, GDP grew
8.5% yoy vs. 8.0% yoy in FY10. Activity likely peaked
in the first half of FY11 and our Economics team
expects it to slow further in FY12 to 7.5%. PMI too
showed slowing activity at 57.5 for May vs 58 for
April. In April, exports grew 34.4% (vs. 43.9% in Mar),
while imports grew 14.1% (vs. 17.3% in Mar).
NIFTY price performance
NIFTY rose 0.7% last week, down 10.1% ytd
 GS Global ECS Research.  , Datastream , Source: NSE
Foreign and domestic flows
FIIs have sold US$ 81 mn ytd, while DIIs bought
US$ 3.2 bn ytd as of the close of June 01, 2011  
Earnings sentiment and relative valuation
MSCI India Telcos saw the weakest EPS sentiment
(-28%) wow after Reliance Communication
reported below expectations
Commodities
Nat. Gas (+5%) outperformed wow, while Crude
Oil pulled back 2% as MCX Commodities ended
flat wow.
Macro events
Macro data: IP (June 10)
Focus
Monsoon Monitor

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