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Weekly US oil data
Constructive as fundamental support
migrates downstream
We've talked in this space about resilient rather than flagging US oil product
consumption. Today's data would appear to strengthen our case, except that much
of the headline spurt in oil demand growth (to >3% on a four week MA, y/y, basis)
accrues to diesel and could very well simply reflect a boost of exports that many
refiners have been talking about for weeks already. So we'll stay tuned and look
forward to more monthly data on especially miles driven and reiterate that we cannot
be bearish gasoline purely on the basis of the weekly data.
As for support migrating downstream, crude oil inventories rebounded forcefully last
week hitting a high for the year that is also some 6% higher than this time last year.
Crude oil imports surged 15% wk/wk, illustrating the volatility in that measure and
obscuring the fact that 4wk MA count remains well below 9mb/d, or nearly 1mb/d shy
of 'normal'. The trouble appears to be in refining land, where gross throughput
remains stuck near 14 mb/d for a third week running and judging from a series of
unplanned outages in the last few days will decline further next week. That lack of
crude oil 'demand' has driven up inventory on both the Gulf and West Coast -- and
caused downstream stocks to fall below their 5yr norm for the first time since Feb
2009.
Meanwhile, oil markets have by-and-large refused to follow their marching orders
(issued some 3 weeks ago) and whatever correction was supposed to happen
appears already behind us, as both supply risk, global refiner demand and US dollar
weakness all conspire to edge Brent futures higher.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories added +6.2mbs – Cushing, OK levels fell -0.7mbs
from the recent record high.
Downstream stocks drew lower, -3.2mbs, continuing the downward trend.
Demand growth turns higher at +3.3% (four week MA, y/y), driven by
demand for both transport fuels and stationary fuels.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Weekly US oil data
Constructive as fundamental support
migrates downstream
We've talked in this space about resilient rather than flagging US oil product
consumption. Today's data would appear to strengthen our case, except that much
of the headline spurt in oil demand growth (to >3% on a four week MA, y/y, basis)
accrues to diesel and could very well simply reflect a boost of exports that many
refiners have been talking about for weeks already. So we'll stay tuned and look
forward to more monthly data on especially miles driven and reiterate that we cannot
be bearish gasoline purely on the basis of the weekly data.
As for support migrating downstream, crude oil inventories rebounded forcefully last
week hitting a high for the year that is also some 6% higher than this time last year.
Crude oil imports surged 15% wk/wk, illustrating the volatility in that measure and
obscuring the fact that 4wk MA count remains well below 9mb/d, or nearly 1mb/d shy
of 'normal'. The trouble appears to be in refining land, where gross throughput
remains stuck near 14 mb/d for a third week running and judging from a series of
unplanned outages in the last few days will decline further next week. That lack of
crude oil 'demand' has driven up inventory on both the Gulf and West Coast -- and
caused downstream stocks to fall below their 5yr norm for the first time since Feb
2009.
Meanwhile, oil markets have by-and-large refused to follow their marching orders
(issued some 3 weeks ago) and whatever correction was supposed to happen
appears already behind us, as both supply risk, global refiner demand and US dollar
weakness all conspire to edge Brent futures higher.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories added +6.2mbs – Cushing, OK levels fell -0.7mbs
from the recent record high.
Downstream stocks drew lower, -3.2mbs, continuing the downward trend.
Demand growth turns higher at +3.3% (four week MA, y/y), driven by
demand for both transport fuels and stationary fuels.
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