04 May 2011

Weekly Fund Flow Tracker -EM comeback regains its footing :: Macquarie Research

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Weekly Fund Flow Tracker
EM comeback regains its footing
Local exchange data: Regaining momentum
􀂃 Strong foreign net-buying across Asia ex-Japan, except India. For the
week ending Wed., April 27, the aggregate of the six Asia ex-Japan markets
where high frequency data is available (ie, Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand,
Indonesia and the Philippines) recorded net-buying of US$3.5bn (vs YTD
average of US$445m). This follows a dip into negative last week (-US$316m)
following S&P’s US credit outlook downgrade, which investors seem to have
shaken off quickly. All markets but India and the Philippines recorded
increased foreign net-buying WoW, led by Korea and Taiwan – the latter at a
14-week high of US$1.6bn.
􀂃 Thailand and Indonesia drive net-buying in TIPs. Both Thailand and
Indonesia recorded stronger net-buying WoW (US$217m and US$96m,
respectively, vs US$141m and net-selling of -US$5m the week before). India
recorded net-selling of -US$285m, ending a five-week net-buying streak.
􀂃 Japan net-buying back above 52-week average. Japan’s data is reported
with a lag, but for the week ending April 22, Japan recorded sustained foreign
net-buying of US$975m (vs 52-week average of US$907m) following a more
moderate week of US$738m.
􀂃 Frontier markets: second week of net-selling. Both Pakistan and Sri Lanka
recorded continued net-selling (-US$8m and -US$3m, respectively, vs
-US$5.3m and -US$5.3m the week before). Vietnam, on the other hand,
continued to record US$5m foreign net-buying, unchanged from last week.
Fund subscription data: Sustained subscriptions
􀂃 Emerging Asia: continued inflows to Asia ex-Japan funds. Regional funds
in aggregate received net-subscriptions of US$827m vs US$970m the week
before, still well above the YTD weekly average net-redemption of -US$316m.
Pan-regional Asia ex-Japan funds’ net-subscriptions moderated to US$238m
from US$480 last week, but remain well above the 52-week average of
US$58m. Most single-country dedicated funds received net-positive
subscriptions, with the exceptions of Taiwan and Singapore funds. Greater-
China funds and Philippines-focused funds saw increased WoW subscription
momentum.
􀂃 Developed Asia: Japan funds reverse 4-week net-redemption streak.
Weekly net-subscriptions received by Japan-focused funds edged back into
the black (US$9m vs last week’s -US$144m), following four consecutive
weeks of outflow totalling -US$845m. Subscriptions to Asia-Pacific Funds
(which combine Australia and New Zealand with Japan and emerging Asia)
moderated to (a still-positive) US$29m from US$121m the week before.
􀂃 GEM fund subscriptions moving back toward strong 52-week average.
Global Emerging Markets funds received US$741m weekly net-subscriptions,
following a moderation to US$615m the week before. This compares to 52-
week average net-subscriptions of US$846m and is now well above 2011’s
YTD average net-redemptions of -US$256m.

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