Semiconductors: Intel expands the opportunity for SSDs in PCs : Macquarie Research

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


MacqTech Express
Semiconductors: Intel expands the
opportunity for SSDs in PCs
Event
 On 11 May, as anticipated in our report of 10 May, Intel unveiled its Z68
Express chipset for high-end PCs and its 20GB SSD 311 ("Larsen Creek").

Impact
 As we wrote in our report, MacqTech Thematic - A solid future in SSDs (10 May
2011), we view this as a significant step forward for the penetration of solidstate
(NAND flash memory) mass storage in the PC. While we do not expect
SSDs to displace hard disk drives (HDDs) in the majority of PCs, there is still a
significant opportunity for NAND flash in the form of a fast cache to accelerate
application software start-ups and to shorten boot-up times.
 Intel's "Smart Response Technology", enabled by the Z68 Express chipset,
"seamlessly combines the responsiveness of a high-performance SSD with the
capacity and low cost of a hard drive". Says Intel: "The system automatically
learns which files are accessed frequently and copies them from the HDD to the
SSD. The next time you access these files, the system loads them from the fast
SSD rather than the slower hard drive. When you request infrequently-used
files, the system loads them from the hard drive when you need them. Systems
boot fast, applications load fast, and the system feels snappy."
 Intel's technology is not exclusive to its own SSDs; SSDs from other vendors
can also be used to obtain benefits of either write-through or write-back caching
(minimum cache size of ~19GB, up to a maximum of 64GB). Intel’s SSD 311
does look well-designed for the role, using fast 34nm SLC flash with 65μs and
75μs read and write latencies – very short compared to HDDs. Intel claims
37,000 IOPS performance for reads and 3,300 IOPS for writes (HDDs: <500).
 While initially positioned for high-end desktops, we expect the technology to
eventually trickle down to lower-end PCs. We note as an aside that the SSD
cache technology is rolled in with "Rapid Storage Technology" (RAID controller),
which supports arrays of multiple HDDs in RAID 0, RAID 5 and RAID 10
configurations. These deliver high performance (RAID 0) or greater redundancy
(RAID 5, RAID 10), and represent a potential driver for HDD demand.
 Also unveiled on 11 March were new Intel Atom-powered notebook PCs
running the Google Chrome operating system ("Chromebooks") – led by
Samsung's 2cm-thick (<1.5kg) Series 5. Chromebooks tap cloud-based
applications like Google Docs, thus allowing the units to eschew HDDs in
favour of SSDs (16GB units in both Samsung and Acer's products). Boot-up
times are claimed to be fast (8 seconds in the case of the Acer unit) with
activation from sleep claimed to be "instant". We are unsure if Chromebooks
will sweep the world, but they do highlight the opportunity for SSDs. The Acer
unit is available for US$349, while the Samsung unit is priced at US$429.
Outlook
 We are positive on the outlook for NAND flash producers like Samsung,
Toshiba and Hynix. We see strong structural demand drivers that will make
the NAND flash market one of the fastest growing in semiconductors. We
forecast a revenue CAGR of 16% for the NAND flash market to CY15