Petronet LNG - Buy Q4FY11 results: LNG volumes surprise positively:: Deutsche Bank

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PLNG reports net profit of INR2.1bn; 20% above street estimate
Petronet LNG (PLNG) reported Q4FY11 PAT at INR2.1bn (+112% YoY,
+21% QoQ), beating both street and our estimates, on account of higher
than expected sales and regas volumes and higher other income at INR314mn
(+480% QoQ). EBITDA at INR3.1bn was up 56% YoY but declined
4% sequentially due to higher staff cost and other expenses.
LNG volumes continues strong growth momentum; Dahej capacity
utilisation close to 95% now
Total LNG volumes at 125.8 TBTUs (+37% YoY, +5% QoQ) were 12%
higher than our estimates. This was driven by both higher sales volumes at
112.1 TBTUs (+23% YoY, +1% QoQ) as well as higher regasification volumes
at 13.6 TBTUs (+1304% YoY, +59% QoQ).
Reiterate Buy on FY11-14 LNG volume CAGR of +12.2%
We reiterate our Buy on PLNG with a target price of INR150 on the back of
+12.2% CAGR in LNG volumes over the next three years till FY14. This will
be driven by higher utilisation at Dahej LNG terminal, commissioning of
5mmtpa Kochi terminal in 2HFY13 and Dahej expansion to 13mmtpa in
FY14. The company has already tied up medium-term contracts of 1.5mmtpa
for supply of additional gas in FY12 and FY13. With ramp-up in KG D6
gas production to 80mmscmd unlikely in the near term, PLNG is the key
beneficiary and one of our top picks on the India natural gas consumption
theme. To target the increasing domestic gas demand-supply deficit, PLNG
is also evaluating further capacity expansion