09 May 2011

Operating performance in line, PAT disappoints… Bharti Airtel :: ICICI Securities

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Operating performance in line, PAT disappoints…
Bharti Airtel declared its Q4FY11 numbers, which were in line with our
estimates on the topline and operating profit front. However, the
company disappointed at the net level. The company reported a topline
of | 16265.4 crore against our expectation of | 16463.7 crore, registering
a QoQ growth of 3.2%. The EBITDA margin jumped 186 bps QoQ to
33.5% due to absence of one-time re-branding cost of | 339.5 crore in
Q3FY11. EBITDA for the quarter stood at | 5444.2 crore against our
expectation of | 5471.8 crore. However, at the net level, the company
disappointed with a PAT of | 1400.7 crore vis-à-vis our expectation of |
1641.6 crore. The variance was primarily due to higher 3G related
amortisation and interest payment and more than expected tax outgo.

􀂃 Highlights of the quarter
ARPU for India stood at | 194 down from | 198, declining 2.5% QoQ
while the MoU remained stable at 449 and ARPM declined 2.4% to
43.1 paisa. The Indian subscriber base grew by 6.4% sequentially to
162.2 million. Traffic on the network grew a healthy 6.4% QoQ to
212 billion minutes. ARPU for African operations was at $7.2,
declining 2.5% QoQ while MoU declined by 4.0% to 115.
Valuation
The operating performance would continue to improve but interest cost
on the huge debt related to 3G auction and acquisition of Zain would hurt
the company’s performance in the near term. An uptake in 3G services,
regulatory clarity and a turnaround in Africa would remain key factors in
the near term. At the CMP of | 358, the stock is trading at 13.8x FY13E.
Using the DCF methodology and assuming revenue CAGR of 11.5% over
FY11E–FY20E and terminal growth of 3.0% thereon, we have arrived at a
target price of | 398/share. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

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