15 May 2011

Oil plummets 14% WoW :: Macquarie Research

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Oil plummets 14% WoW
Energy Market Indices WoW Changes
⇒ S&P/TSX Energy Index: -4.3%
⇒ S&P 500 E&P Index: -6.6%
⇒ Oil Service Sector Index: -9.4%
⇒ UK FTSE Oil & Gas Producers Index: -4.0%
⇒ Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Producers Index: -4.3%

Weekly Market Recap
Oil closed Friday at US$97.80/bbl, down 14.2% WoW mainly on account of a
stronger dollar that pushed most commodities lower. Crude oil posted its largest
weekly loss in dollar terms since it began trading on the NYMEX in 1983, mainly led
by Thursday’s big down move that pulled the front month WTI contract below the
psychological US$100/bbl level and down from its 52-week high of US$115/bbl on
2 May 2011. Aside from the subprime meltdown in September 2008, and
January 1991 on the first day of Operation Desert Storm, this was the third time that
crude had fallen more than $10/bbl in a single day.
Natural gas closed Friday at US$4.26/mmbtu, down 9.3% WoW after the EIA posted
that natural gas inventories rose by 72bcf to 1.757tcf, relative to the 68bcf
consensus estimate and the five-year average change of 78bcf. At the point this was
released, natural gas futures had already taken a beating, as forecasters called for
milder weather in the southern and eastern United States next week.
Canadian large caps wrapped up 1Q11 earnings last week, with Suncor, Talisman,
and Canadian Natural Resources reporting. Suncor’s stock was punished, losing 8%
WoW, despite meeting expectations. Talisman missed expectations and was down
7% WoW. Canadian Natural also missed expectations due to the Horizon upgrader
fire, but increased its production guidance. CNQ was down 5% WoW.
In Europe, Statoil reported 1Q11 net income of NOK12bn, 12% below consensus
due to higher taxes. Despite the miss, 1Q production and realisations are in line and
production guidance for 2011 remains unchanged. The Peterson Group has
exercised its option to buy an additional 10% of YPF (Repsol’s Argentinean
subsidiary) for US$1.3bn. Post-transaction Repsol will retain 58% of YPF and
Peterson Group will have 26%. Lundin Petroleum reported strong 1Q11 results with
net income of US$53.4m and average production of 33.5kboe/d. It also highlighted
its 2011 E&A programme including nine more wells in Norway and five back-to-back
wells in Malaysia. Soco International provided updates on the operations in the Cuu
Long Basin offshore Vietnam, confirming approvals by the Government of Vietnam
for an extension to its TGD appraisal area as well as the two phases Development
Plan for its TGT field. Melrose Resources reduced 2011 WI production guidance by
8% and reported a net negative reserves adjustment in its Bulgarian fields. The
stock lost over 6% on the day of the announcement.

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