Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
4QFY11 results
Adjusted for the accounting change, MPSEZ’s 4QFY11 PAT stood at Rs2.5bn (up
31%YoY, 10%QoQ), in-line with our expectations. Adjusted revenues rose
23%YoY to Rs5.2bn - 7% below estimates on account of lower SEZ sales and port
realisations. Ebitda margins, however, expanded by 12.3ppt YoY (3.5ppt QoQ) and
other income rose sharply, boosting the bottom line. We increase our FY12-13 EPS
by 1-2% on higher container cargo and Ebitda margin expectations. Maintain U-PF
with a Rs133/sh target; we would view a ~10% correction as a good entry point.
Adjusted for accounting change, revenues 7% below expectations
MPSEZ’s reported 4QFY11 revenues and PAT rose by 44% and 74% YoY, to Rs6bn and
Rs3.4bn respectively, higher than our estimates. We note, though, that Mundra
changed its accounting policy relating to SEZ revenues (it now recognises certain
transactions as finance leases and books present values of future lease rentals
upfront); this boosted revenues and PAT by Rs874m and Rs839m respectively.
Adjusted for this, revenues rose 23%YoY to Rs5.2bn – 7% below estimates, due to
lower implied port realisations (Rs350/t, down 7% YoY/2% QoQ) and poor SEZ sales.
Higher than expected Ebitda margins; other income boost bottom line
Port traffic rose 34% YoY to 14.1mt, with dry bulk cargo increasing by 70% YoY (led
by doubling of coal cargo to 4.6mt). Conversely, container cargo (0.31m TEU,
+19%YoY) came below expectations. This translated into a 24%YoY rise in standalone
port revenues to Rs4.9bn, 7% below estimates. Ebitda margins, however, expanded
sharply by 12.3ppt over 4QFY10 (3.5ppt QoQ), to 72.2% and other income increased
8x YoY (3x QoQ) to Rs386m because of higher scrap sales. This helped MPSEZ report
in-line adjusted PAT, despite the revenue miss and higher than expected interest
expenses and tax charge. For FY11, traffic rose 28% YoY to 51.7mt, resulting in
revenue and profit growth of 35% (to Rs18.9bn) and 41% (to Rs9.9bn) respectively.
SEZ sales continue to disappoint; Dahej traffic lower than estimates
MPSEZ sold only 25acres land in 4Q, earning Rs250m in revenues. For FY11, its SEZ
revenue from fresh leases stood at ~Rs340m (35-40acres), compared to Rs1.1bn in
FY10. Moreover, the company did not earn any significant construction income in 4Q
(FY11: ~Rs160m, sharply lower than ~Rs1bn for FY10). We also note that the Dahej
Port handled only 0.6mt cargo in FY11, lower than our expectation of 3mt.
Upgrade FY12-13 EPS forecasts by 1-2%; maintain U-PF
We upgrade FY12-13 container traffic expectation by 3-5%; we now build in 21% Cagr
in container cargo (29% Cagr in total port traffic) over FY11-14. With MPSEZ exhibiting
strong control over staff/ admin costs, we also cut our overhead estimates, leading to
a 1-2ppt increase in Ebitda margin expectations. The impact is partly offset by higher
interest costs (US$5-6m loan for tugs) and deferred taxes. Overall, our FY12-13 EPS
increases by 1-2%; we estimate 28% EPS Cagr over FY11-14. Our model does not yet
build in the impact of MAT payment in view of continued uncertainty regarding the
provision; this could bring down fair value by 3-4%, though impact on earnings should
be negligible. Maintain U-PF; we would view a ~10% correction as a good entry point.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
4QFY11 results
Adjusted for the accounting change, MPSEZ’s 4QFY11 PAT stood at Rs2.5bn (up
31%YoY, 10%QoQ), in-line with our expectations. Adjusted revenues rose
23%YoY to Rs5.2bn - 7% below estimates on account of lower SEZ sales and port
realisations. Ebitda margins, however, expanded by 12.3ppt YoY (3.5ppt QoQ) and
other income rose sharply, boosting the bottom line. We increase our FY12-13 EPS
by 1-2% on higher container cargo and Ebitda margin expectations. Maintain U-PF
with a Rs133/sh target; we would view a ~10% correction as a good entry point.
Adjusted for accounting change, revenues 7% below expectations
MPSEZ’s reported 4QFY11 revenues and PAT rose by 44% and 74% YoY, to Rs6bn and
Rs3.4bn respectively, higher than our estimates. We note, though, that Mundra
changed its accounting policy relating to SEZ revenues (it now recognises certain
transactions as finance leases and books present values of future lease rentals
upfront); this boosted revenues and PAT by Rs874m and Rs839m respectively.
Adjusted for this, revenues rose 23%YoY to Rs5.2bn – 7% below estimates, due to
lower implied port realisations (Rs350/t, down 7% YoY/2% QoQ) and poor SEZ sales.
Higher than expected Ebitda margins; other income boost bottom line
Port traffic rose 34% YoY to 14.1mt, with dry bulk cargo increasing by 70% YoY (led
by doubling of coal cargo to 4.6mt). Conversely, container cargo (0.31m TEU,
+19%YoY) came below expectations. This translated into a 24%YoY rise in standalone
port revenues to Rs4.9bn, 7% below estimates. Ebitda margins, however, expanded
sharply by 12.3ppt over 4QFY10 (3.5ppt QoQ), to 72.2% and other income increased
8x YoY (3x QoQ) to Rs386m because of higher scrap sales. This helped MPSEZ report
in-line adjusted PAT, despite the revenue miss and higher than expected interest
expenses and tax charge. For FY11, traffic rose 28% YoY to 51.7mt, resulting in
revenue and profit growth of 35% (to Rs18.9bn) and 41% (to Rs9.9bn) respectively.
SEZ sales continue to disappoint; Dahej traffic lower than estimates
MPSEZ sold only 25acres land in 4Q, earning Rs250m in revenues. For FY11, its SEZ
revenue from fresh leases stood at ~Rs340m (35-40acres), compared to Rs1.1bn in
FY10. Moreover, the company did not earn any significant construction income in 4Q
(FY11: ~Rs160m, sharply lower than ~Rs1bn for FY10). We also note that the Dahej
Port handled only 0.6mt cargo in FY11, lower than our expectation of 3mt.
Upgrade FY12-13 EPS forecasts by 1-2%; maintain U-PF
We upgrade FY12-13 container traffic expectation by 3-5%; we now build in 21% Cagr
in container cargo (29% Cagr in total port traffic) over FY11-14. With MPSEZ exhibiting
strong control over staff/ admin costs, we also cut our overhead estimates, leading to
a 1-2ppt increase in Ebitda margin expectations. The impact is partly offset by higher
interest costs (US$5-6m loan for tugs) and deferred taxes. Overall, our FY12-13 EPS
increases by 1-2%; we estimate 28% EPS Cagr over FY11-14. Our model does not yet
build in the impact of MAT payment in view of continued uncertainty regarding the
provision; this could bring down fair value by 3-4%, though impact on earnings should
be negligible. Maintain U-PF; we would view a ~10% correction as a good entry point.
No comments:
Post a Comment