09 May 2011

JPMorgan, India Consumer & Retail - Off the Shelf

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Key developments in Indian consumer space over the past month:
• New product launches. 1) Dabur forays into hand sanitiser market with
the launch of Fem Safe Handz, 2) GSK Consumer is looking to diversify
its product base further with an entry into the glucose segment, launching
two products Boost Glucose in Northern and Western India and Glaxose D
in East India, 3) Marico expands its foods portfolio with the launch of
Saffola Gold Basmati Rice, and 4) HUL expands its premium skin care
portfolio, introducing Fair & Lovely Anti Marks Eraser Pen.

• Price hikes. 1) Colgate undertook 2-7% price increases across its key
brands Colgate Dental Cream, Active Salt and Maxfresh Gel, 2) Dabur took
more price hikes – Real juices (5-7%), Fem Bleach (8-10%) and Meswak
toothpaste (6-8%), 3) Hair Oil category saw more price hikes - Bajaj Corp
raised prices for its leading brand Almond Drop hair oil by 9% and Emami
undertook a 4% price hike for its leading Navratna cooling oil, and 4)
Britannia took 15-20% price hike across some of its brands like Bourbon.
• Global companies post healthy growth rates in India during Mar’11
qtr. Pepsico reported 20% and 18% volume growth rate for beverages and
snacks division respectively in India. L’Oreal registers 28% sales growth
for Indian operations. Unilever, in its Q1 trading statement, mentioned it
registered strong volume growth in India.
• JPM Global Research. Key takeaways from results of P&G, Colgate and
Unilever: 1) Rising input cost inflation hurting margins as companies raised
their FY11 input costs guidance; 2) Price increases are gaining more ground
and weighted towards H211 (P&G also mentioned deceleration in
promotions); 3) Emerging markets continue to witness good growth while
mature markets remain weak.
• Key commodity trends. Palm oil prices remained flat m/m and copra
prices increased 3% m/m. Wheat (-3% m/m) and sugar (flat m/m) prices
continue to remain subdued. LAB prices continue to rise significantly and
were up 7% m/m and HDPE prices were flat m/m.
• Performance and Valuation. Over the past month, BSE FMCG Index was
up 1.8%, outperforming Sensex by 6.3%. Nestle India and Colgate India
were the better performers, up c10% each.

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